College Football Week 13 heats up early and the lines are already offering clear edges for bettors willing to move fast. This College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions: Early Slate piece zeroes in on three wagers I like — a game-total contrarian play, a low-scoring projection in a rivalry tilt, and a confident road spread — each with a concise rationale and a straight, expert-backed call. Read on for my reasoning and final-score expectations so you can get these tickets placed before the lines tighten.
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College Football Week 13 Best Bets
Best Bet #1: Rutgers vs. Ohio State, 12:00 p.m. ET
This matchup pairs Ohio State’s explosive scoring ability with a Rutgers offense that has shown enough pop to put up points in bunches when its passing game is clicking. Ohio State’s offense thrives on tempo and chunk plays — when they connect early, clock control goes out the window and scoreboard inflation follows. Meanwhile, Rutgers has flashed creativity in play-calling and can produce quick drives that either end in scores or short fields after turnovers.
Given both teams’ tendencies — Ohio State to push pace and Rutgers to trade blows rather than stall — 55.5 feels beatable. Expect a fast first half with multiple big plays (long touchdown passes or broken coverage runs) that push the teams past the total.
Projected final score: Ohio State 38, Rutgers 21
Play: OVER 55.5
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Best Bet #2: Missouri vs. Oklahoma, 12:00 p.m. ET
This one screams defensive slog. Missouri’s offense can be plodding against athletic defenses, and Oklahoma has defensive personnel capable of forcing a low-event game if they win the line of scrimmage. Weather and game script are likely to matter here: if either team establishes a lead, the other will be forced into more conservative play-calling and clock-heavy drives, which depress scoring. Additionally, both teams have shown they can lean on rushing drives and long possessions rather than quick-strike scoring in big spots.
When you combine conservative game scripts with the real possibility of turnovers and field-position battles, the math favors a sub-43-point game.
Projected final score: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 13
Play: UNDER 42.5
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Best Bet #3: Louisville vs. SMU, 12:00 p.m. ET
SMU has the offensive balance and quarterback play to control tempo and exploit Louisville’s defensive mismatches, especially in the intermediate passing game and on the edge with the run. Louisville’s defense has been vulnerable to well-coached, rhythm offenses that can sustain long drives and flip field position; SMU fits that profile. On the other side, Louisville’s offense is capable but inconsistent — turnover issues and sudden scoring droughts have cost them in tight games.
SMU’s roster depth and scheming advantage make them the safer play at a slim road favorite. At -2.5 this looks like a fair line to back the better overall unit — take SMU to cover and expect them to close the game out.
Projected final score: SMU 31, Louisville 24
Play: SMU -2.5
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