Last Updated on November 18, 2025 12:41 am by Alex Becker
GRAPEVINE, TX— Our College Football Saturday Best Bets lock in value across the Week 12 slate by targeting key numbers, matchup leverage, and soft prices created by one-sided public action. As always, we pair verified odds with market context and grounded reasoning.
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College Football Week 12 Best Bets
Best Bet #1 — TCU at #12 BYU
Current odds: TCU +3 (-105) / BYU -3 (-115)
Why it makes the card: BYU got smoked by Texas Tech last weekend in Lubbock by a score of 29-7. That result has people moving off of the Cougars, but I think BYU is in a prime spot for a bounce-back here. BYU gets this game at home with an 8:15 local start time, so they should have a considerable home-field edge. On top of that, BYU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 6-3-1 ATS as the home team since the start of last season. And finally, the Cougars are 7-5-1 ATS as a favorite and 8-7-1 in conference games since the start of the 2024 season.
Pick: BYU -3.
Best Bet #2 — #19 Virginia at Duke
Current odds: Virginia +4.5 (-110) / Duke -4.5 (-110)
Why it makes the card: This is an odd line. Virginia is 8-2 straight up overall and 5-1 straight up in conference play this year. Duke is 5-4 straight up overall and 4-1 straight up in ACC games this year. Both teams lost last weekend, Virginia dropped a game at home to Wake Forest while Duke lost on the road at UConn. The key variable hear is the injury status of Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris. Morris was forced out of last week’s game against Wake Forest with a concussion, but according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, “there’s optimism” that Morris will start against Duke on Saturday. That presents a value opportunity, as this line would likely be closer to a pick ’em if Chandler Morris was officially declared active for Saturday’s contest. For that reason, I like the Cavaliers and the points here.
Pick: Virginia +4.5.
Best Bet #3 — #10 Texas at #5 Georgia
Current odds: Texas +6.5 (-110) / Georgia -6.5 (-110)
Why it makes the card: Georgia played Texas twice last season, and the Bulldogs won and covered against the Longhorns both times. I think UGA makes it three wins and three covers in a row against Texas on Saturday night. The first reason is: the game is in Athens at night. That’s going to be a tough environment for Texas QB Arch Manning to play in, as he’s already lost road games to Ohio State and Florida this season. Furthermore, Georgia has been good against the number of late. The Bulldogs are 4-2-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They were favored in every game during that stretch. I think Arch Manning and the Texas offense get bogged down, and that Georgia’s offense scores enough to win by a touchdown on Saturday night.
Pick: Georgia -6.5.
College Football Week 12 Best Bets — Long-Shot Looks
Long Shot #1 — #11 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama
Current odds: Oklahoma +6 (-110) / Alabama -6 (-110)
Why it’s live: This is a long shot because Alabama lost to Oklahoma last season by a score of 24-3. The Sooners were 13.5-point underdogs in that game, but won outright by 3 touchdowns. So for Alabama to cover, the Crimson Tide will need to be 28 points better than they were against the Sooners last year. I think they can do it. Alabama has a new quarterback this season in Ty Simpson, who has a 21-1 touchdown-pass-to-interception ratio and a QBR of 81.3 this year. The Tide also get this game at home, where they are 5-0 ATS this year. On top of that, Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. I like the Crimson Tide to improve that record on Saturday with a win over the Sooners by 7+ points.
Lean: Alabama -6.
Long Shot #2 — #9 Notre Dame at #22 Pittsburgh
Current odds: Notre Dame -12.5 (-110) / Notre Dame +12.5 (-110)
Why it’s live: I like Pitt here for a few reasons. First, Notre Dame is a public team, so their lines tend to get inflated by a couple of points each week. Second, Pittsburgh has been hot against the number lately. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Third, Pittsburgh has thrived in underdog spots like this over the past 20 years. Since the start of the 2005 season, the Panthers are 54-47-4 ATS as an underdog and 21-16-1 ATS as a home underdog. And finally, the pressure. Notre Dame likely needs to win this game to stay in the race for the College Football Playoff. Since this won’t be a conference game for Pittsburgh, they can lose on Saturday and still win the ACC. Therefore, the Panthers will be free to play loosely, as they will still be ok if they drop this game.
Lean: Pittsburgh +12.5.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Saturday Slate)
- TCU at BYU — Tickets: TCU 52% · BYU 48%
- Virginia at Duke — Tickets: Virginia 46% · Duke 54%
- Texas at Georgia — Tickets: Texas 54% · Georgia 46%
- Oklahoma at Alabama — Tickets: Oklahoma 52% · Alabama 48%
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh — Tickets: Notre Dame 52% · Pittsburgh 48%
Trends & Notes
- Key numbers matter: BYU -3, Georgia -6.5, and Alabama -6 sit at or below sensitive thresholds.
- Home favorites at night: BYU and Georgia are both home favorites of less than a touchdown in games that start at 7:30 local time or later.
- Market preferences: Fading the public can be a viable strategy when the other side is a good team at home (BYU, Alabama, Georgia), or a team that’s catching a few too many points (Virginia and Pittsburgh).
Our College Football Saturday Best Bets
- BYU
- Virginia
- Georgia
- Long-shot leans: Alabama, Pittsburgh
🔎 Learn more: How to shop CFB lines · Closing Line Value · Public betting guide
College Football Betting: Odds, Trends & Strategy
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