Week 11 brings a delicious mix of tidy underdogs and a spot where a blue-chip road favorite can still be played with confidence. I targeted three plays with clear situational edges in some of the biggest matchups on the afternoon slate in college football. Keep reading for my College Football Week 11 Midday Best Bets and predictions for Texas A&M-Missouri, Oregon-Iowa and Washington-Wisconsin.
College Football Week 11 Midday Best Bets: Missouri +7
Game information: Texas A&M (ranked) visits Missouri at Memorial Stadium / Faurot Field in Columbia, MO — kickoff listed for Nov. 8, 2025 (mid/afternoon window). Bovada shows Missouri +7.0 on the board.
Weather report (Columbia, MO): Mild, cool fall conditions with daytime temps in the 50s–60s and light winds — nothing expected that would disrupt a normal gameplan.
Why Missouri covers (+7): Missouri’s resume this season includes a stingy home-field identity and a roster that tends to cleanly execute when the crowd matters. Texas A&M has been excellent, but they arrive off a bye and a gauntlet schedule; short rest patterns earlier in the month and travel can compress higher-variance explosive plays. Missouri also has matchup advantages in areas A&M has occasionally struggled this season — turnover margin swings and special teams — which keep games closer than the chalk suggests. At +7 in Columbia, Missouri’s game plan (short drives, clock control, force a few contested possessions) gives bettors a realistic two-score cushion late; expect the home dogs to hang within one possession.
Pick: Missouri +7 — Final score: Texas A&M 27, Missouri 20.
College Football Week 11 Midday Best Bets: Oregon -6
Game information: Oregon at Iowa (Kinnick Stadium), kickoff in the mid-afternoon window on Nov. 8, 2025; Bovada lists Oregon around -6.0. TV and local start times vary by market.
Weather report (Iowa City, IA): Forecasts call for cold, wet conditions in Iowa City on Saturday — temperatures in the 40s with a high chance of rain and gusty winds, which can compress offensive explosiveness and favor teams that can run and protect the football.
Why Oregon covers (-6): This is an advantageous spot for Oregon because they are the more consistent attacking team and can win with multiple offensive paths — run, quick passing, and opportunistic scoring — whereas Iowa’s offense has been inconsistent despite a stout defense. The critical wrinkle is game state: even in bad weather, Oregon’s offensive line and playbook are set up to take what Iowa gives them (sustained drives, move-the-chains first down efficiency) while forcing Iowa to play from behind and become one-dimensional. Iowa’s defensive strengths may keep this to a single-score margin, but Oregon’s ability to close out games and flip field position on special teams gives them the edge to cover a 6-point spread on the road.
Pick: Oregon -6 — Final score: Oregon 24, Iowa 17.
College Football Week 11 Midday Best Bets: Wisconsin +11
Game information: Washington (ranked) at Wisconsin, Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI — kickoff scheduled Nov. 8, 2025 in the mid-afternoon window; Bovada lists Wisconsin around +11 (line shown 11–11.5 in multiple books).
Weather report (Madison, WI): Early November in Madison can be crisp; forecasts indicate cool conditions with potential for chilly wind in the afternoon — conditions that favor a ground-and-possession approach rather than a shootout.
Why Wisconsin covers (+11): Washington is the superior team on paper, but an 11-point number on the road is fat value for a Badgers squad that will lean on ball-control football. Wisconsin’s path to covering is obvious: control the clock with a heavy rushing focus, win third downs on manageable gains, and keep Washington’s explosive plays off the board. Washington’s offense has been high-volume, but on the road in a hostile Camp Randall atmosphere and potentially brisk conditions, the Huskies can stall — and if they do, an 11-point cushion for Wisconsin is extremely playable. Expect Washington to win but Wisconsin to keep it within two possessions. Pick: Wisconsin +11 —
Final score: Washington 24, Wisconsin 17.
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