Get ready for a classic Sun Bowl showdown as the Arizona State Sun Devils (8–4) meet the Duke Blue Devils (8–5) in El Paso — a clash of ACC grit and Big 12 toughness with big postseason bragging rights on the line. Duke comes in as a narrow favorite, but this one has upset potential written all over it thanks to key personnel changes, contrasting styles, and postseason momentum. With the Blue Devils laying a field goal and the total sitting at 47.5, what’s the smart play in today’s Arizona State vs. Duke matchup?
Arizona State vs. Duke Game Information
- 📅 Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
- 🕠 Kickoff: 2:00 PM ET on CBS
- 📍 Location: Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX
Arizona State vs. Duke Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State | +3 | 47.5 | +142 |
| Duke | -3 | 47.5 | -150 |
Who Is The Public Betting
| Team | % of Bets | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State | 42% | +1.5 | +3 |
| Duke | 58% | -1.5 | -3 |
Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.
🔥 Storylines & Key Players
Duke Blue Devils
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QB Darian Mensah has been elite all season with 3,646 passing yards and 30 TDs vs. just 5 INTs, leading Duke’s high-tempo offense.
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The Blue Devils also lean on dual threats in the backfield: Nate Sheppard (962 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and Anderson Castle (11 rushing TDs).
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WR Cooper Barkate tops the receiving corps with 1,069 yards and 6 TDs, giving Duke a true go-to playmaker.
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Duke’s turnover margin (+9) and ACC title run provide late-season confidence, though their defensive unit has been inconsistent (especially against the pass).
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Opt-outs: Duke will be without a few key pieces (OL Brian Parker II, CB Chandler Rivers, DE Vincent Anthony Jr.), but Mensah and most offensive threats remain.
Arizona State Sun Devils
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With Sam Leavitt out due to injury, Jeff Sims assumes the starting role — a dynamic rushing QB (466 yards this season) with a tough running style.
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The Sun Devils lost top receiver Jordyn Tyson (711 yards, 8 TDs) to the draft-opt-out, forcing others like Malik McClain and Derek Eusebio to step up.
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ASU’s run game without Raleek Brown still ranks solidly, and the defense has held opponents to ~23.0 PPG, featuring strong red-zone resistance.
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The Sun Devils are also missing several players via opt-outs and injuries, adding uncertainty to their depth chart.
📊 Statistical Matchup
| Category | Duke | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring Offense | ~34 PPG | ~24.7 PPG |
| Total Offense | ~414.6 YPG | ~400.0 YPG |
| Defense (YPG Allowed) | ~408.8 | ~342.3 |
| Turnover Margin | +9 (top 15 nationally) | –3 |
Duke’s offense clearly holds the edge statistically — particularly in passing — but the Blue Devils’ defense has struggled all year, especially in coverage. Arizona State counters with a tough, bend-but-don’t-break unit and an ability to control tempo on the ground.
🧠 Tactical Notes
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Duke’s Formula: Move the chains through aerial efficiency and avoid mistakes. Mensah’s precision passing and Duke’s turnover advantage could be the deciding edge.
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Arizona State’s Plan: Establish physicality with Sims’ legs, protect the football, and let their defense make key stops. Without top pass catchers, they may lean on balanced drives and field position.
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Bowl Dynamics: Bowl games often swing on motivation and coaching. Duke’s ACC title and higher pass offense may pressure ASU, but Sun Devils are battle-tested with unique defensive strength.
🏈 Final Score Projection
Duke Blue Devils 31 — Arizona State Sun Devils 27
This Sun Bowl should be competitive throughout. Duke’s firepower through the air and turnover margin give them a slight edge, but Arizona State’s defensive discipline and rush balance keep it close late. Predict a back-and-forth game that sees Duke pull away only in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Over 47.5
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