Alabama vs. Indiana CFP Predictions: Hoosiers on Upset Alert?

In one of the most compelling quarterfinals of the 2025–26 College Football Playoff, undefeated Indiana takes on traditional powerhouse Alabama in Pasadena. Indiana enters at 13-0, riding perhaps the finest season in program history as the Big Ten champions, while Alabama (11-3) punched its ticket with a big comeback win over Oklahoma in the first round. With the Hoosiers laying 7.5 and the total sitting at 48, what’s the smart bet in today’s Alabama vs. Indiana matchup?

Alabama vs. Indiana Game Information

• 📅 Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
• 🕠 Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET on ESPN
• 📍 Location: Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA

Alabama vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Who Is The Public Betting

Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.

Key Players to Watch

🔹 Indiana Hoosiers

• QB Fernando Mendoza (Heisman Winner):
Mendoza has put together a historic year — completing over 71% of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards, 33 TDs and only six interceptions, with added mobility that keeps defenses honest.

• RB Roman Hemby & RB Kaelon Black:
Indiana’s ground game is one of the nation’s best, averaging over 220 rushing yards per game and ranking in the top 10 nationally. Hemby’s combination of speed and power has been key to keeping drives alive and controlling tempo.

• Hoosiers Defense:
Indiana ranks among the elite defenses in FBS, allowing around 10–11 points per game and constantly pressuring opposing offenses. Their ability to slow down both the run and pass is a major reason they’ve stayed undefeated.

🔹 Alabama Crimson Tide

• QB Ty Simpson:
Simpson has led Alabama’s offense with poise, throwing for around 250 yards and 28 TDs this season. He showed resilience in the comeback win over Oklahoma and will need another big night against Indiana’s pressure fronts.

• Receiving Corps:
Alabama’s strength remains its ability to stretch the field, creating mismatches and solid yards after catch. The Tide are second nationally in receiving first downs, a testament to their passing game’s efficiency.

• Alabama Defense:
Bama’s defense has been consistently strong, ranking near the top nationally in points allowed and boasting a pass defense that can limit big plays. They’ll look to disrupt Mendoza’s rhythm early.

Strengths & Matchup Notes

🔥 Indiana’s Balanced Attack vs. Alabama’s Experience

Indiana has been the story of the season — explosive on offense (nearly 42 points per game) and suffocating on defense (allowing around 10.8 ppg). Their ability to dominate both phases is why they’re a 7-point favorite in many spots.

Meanwhile, Alabama excels in team toughness and big-game experience, especially on defense and in key situations like fourth down. Their aggressive strategy on fourth down has paid dividends and could keep them competitive in a tight game.

⚖️ The Battle on the Ground

Indiana’s rushing attack — one of the nation’s best — stands in contrast to Alabama’s struggles on the ground. If Bama can’t get more than modest gains on the ground, they’ll put heavy pressure on Simpson and rely on timely passing and situational defense to stay in it.

Alabama vs. Indiana Score Projection

This matchup rests on how well Alabama can control Indiana’s tempo and whether the Crimson Tide offense can find consistent rhythm behind Simpson. Indiana’s efficient and dynamic attack — capped by a Heisman performance — gives them an edge, especially early in the game.

🏈 Projected Final Score:
Indiana 38, Alabama 24

Expect a competitive first half before Indiana’s depth and balance pull away slightly in the fourth quarter. Their ability to blend the run and pass — while limiting turnovers — should be the difference in this quarterfinal clash.

The Pick: Indiana -7.5 & Over 48

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