Alabama vs. Arkansas State Spread Pick
Following their impressive beatdown of Louisville in Week 1, the Alabama Crimson Tide will look to avoid a letdown when they host the Arkansas State Red Wolves at 3:30 p.m. ET. Will the Red Wolves cover as a massive road dog today?
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, September 8, 2018
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Crimson Tide are 36.5-point favorites to beat the Red Wolves. The total, meanwhile, sits at 64.5 points. As of this writing, 72% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Tide.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State redshirt senior QB Justice Hansen completed 26-of-36 passes for 473 yards with six touchdowns and an interception in a 48-14 rout of Southeast Missouri State on Saturday. A sensational start to the season from one of the unheralded stars of college football. Of course, it comes against an FCS program, but anyone who watched the redshirt senior play last year knows he’s capable of this. Perhaps most impressive is that he was able to spread out all six scores to six different players. He also added 31 yards on five carries, showing that he’s a capable player as a runner as well. Hansen is a ton of fun to watch, and he’ll be on display for the Red Wolves next week against Alabama next Saturday.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama HC Nick Saban announced that sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa will start on Saturday against Arkansas State. Tagovailoa starting last week’s opener against Arkansas qualified as a small surprise — if that — but this isn’t a surprise at all. Not after Tagovailoa completed 12-of-16 passes and threw for three touchdowns and 227 yards in the thumping of Arkansas. Jalen Hurts is expected to play as well against the Red Wolves, but there’s no guarantee that the junior signal-caller gets significant time. This really does appear to be Tagovailoa’s job.
The Red Wolves have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games overall.
The Crimson Tide are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games played in the month of September.
This is one of the few good spots to fade Saban’s teams. Alabama will often play a meaningful non-conference game in its opener, then schedule two winnable non-conference opponents before beginning SEC play. Over the past five seasons, the Tide are 0-4-1 against the spread the week before their conference opener. It might not be a true letdown for the Tide, but Saban is a perfectionist and revels in correcting mistakes. It’s almost as if he has his team purposely pull back to keep them focused. Meanwhile, The Red Wolves can move the ball a little so even if ‘Bama scores 50, I expect Arkansas State to reach pay dirt a couple of times, which would cover this massive spread.
College Football Week 2 Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves +36.5