Clemson Tigers Win Total Prediction
The Clemson Tigers had an encouraging season in 2022. Clemson won the ACC, went 11-3, but ended the year by losing to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl 31-14.
Can the Tigers win the conference again and compete for a playoff berth in 2023?
Clemson Tigers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10 -135
Under 10 +110
2022 Season Recap
Clemson began the season 8-0 last year, but wound up losing 2 of their final 4 contests to finish the regular season 10-2. The main problem was subpar quarterback play by third-year quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. Uiagalelei threw for 2,521 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but he ranked 52nd in the country with a total QBR of 64.8. He simply wasn’t good enough for Clemson to be a championship contender last season, and that’s probably one of the reasons he transferred to Oregon State. The team around D.J. Uiagalelei was solid as the Tigers ranked in the top 25 nationally in both points per play margin and yards per point margin. It seems a bit wild that in a year where Clemson went 11-3 and won the ACC, it felt like a bit of a disappointment. But that’s the standard that Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney has set: consistently competing for national championships. I believe that Clemson can get back to that with a new starting QB in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB D.J. Uiagalelei, DE Myles Murphy, DT Bryan Bresee, ILB Trenton Simpson, DE KJ Henry, OG Jordan McFadden, TE Davis Allen, WR Joseph Ngata, K B.T. Potter, CB Fred Davis II
Key Player Additions: QB Paul Tyson, WR Tyler Brown, DE T.J. Parker, DT Peter Woods, LB Dee Crayton, LB Jamal Anderson, DB Khalil Barnes, OG Harris Sewell, CB Shelton Lewis, CB Avieon Terrell
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has been vocal about his distaste for the transfer portal and the effect that it’s having on college football. He seems to have practiced what he preached when it came to the portal this past offseason. Clemson only added one player through the transfer portal, and that was former Arizona State quarterback Paul Tyson. The rest of the new faces were part of Clemson’s 11th-ranked recruiting class, according to 247Sports.com. The Tigers have shown a penchant for churning out elite talent when it comes to their defensive front seven, and they had four defensive linemen and linebackers taken in the 2023 NFL Draft this past spring. Clemson shouldn’t miss those players, however, as their starting defense will only feature one underclassman in strong-side linebacker Wade Woodaz. The rest of the defense will be juniors and seniors with Jeremiah Trotter Jr. serving as the unquestioned star of the unit. Trotter led the team in total tackles (89) and was tied for the team lead in sacks (6.5) last season. He’ll likely serve as one of the next great Clemson defensive players and head off to the NFL after his days in orange are through.
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The Tigers’ offense will be led by quarterback Cade Klubnik and running back Will Shipley. It’s quite possible that Klubnik is an upgrade over D.J. Uiagalelei. What’s more, Shipley is coming off of a season where he ran for 1,182 yards and 15 touchdowns. Clemson’s offense wasn’t very explosive last season, as they ranked 61st in yards per play, but I could see that changing with Klubnik as the undisputed starter, a new offensive coordinator, and the Tigers’ young wide receivers getting another year of experience under their belts.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Brandon Streeter
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Garrett Riley
As mentioned above, Clemson’s offense wasn’t as explosive last season as it had been in years past. There was also the concerning regression of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. The offense wasn’t up to the task in 2022, and that’s largely why Clemson didn’t make it into the College Football Playoff. Sometimes loyal to a fault, Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney elected to make a change at offensive coordinator. Swinney released longtime Clemson assistant coach and 2022 offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter to bring in former TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Streeter had been on the Clemson coaching staff in some capacity since 2014, but the offense needed a change of pace, and Garrett Riley, the younger brother of USC head coach Lincoln Riley should offer just that.
This is one of the best assistant coaching changes of the college football off-season, in my opinion. In his lone season as the offensive coordinator at TCU, Garrett Riley had the Horned Frogs ranked in the top 7 nationally in both points per play and yards per point. He did all of this with Max Duggan at quarterback, a player who began the year as the backup and was just released from the Los Angeles Chargers, who drafted him in this past year’s draft. There’s also the fact that Garrett Riley and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik are both from Texas. Aside from the personal connection there, Riley has a comprehensive understanding of how high school teams in Texas run their offense, which should be a window into what Klubnik is good at and is used to doing within an offensive scheme. Cade Klubnik has the size (6’2” 195 pounds), pedigree (five-star prospect), the right coaches, and now the opportunity to be a great college quarterback. I believe that Garrett Riley will help him get there in 2023.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to Sports Betting Dime, Clemson has the 38th-toughest schedule out of 133 FBS teams. I don’t think they should have much trouble navigating it this season. As it stands, Clemson only plays three ranked teams in 2023. They are Florida State, Notre Dame, and North Carolina. The Tigers get all three of those games at home. If Clemson can get by Florida State at home on September 23, they would have a legitimate shot at being 8-0 heading into the Notre Dame game on November 4. Keep in mind that Clemson started the season 8-0 last year. If Clemson is 8-0 going into the Notre Dame game, they would only have to win 3 out of 4 against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and South Carolina to finish 11-1 and cash the over. Only the South Carolina game will be on the road. That seems very plausible to me.
The schedule shakes out well for Clemson as they only play five road games all season with all of them being winnable: Duke, Syracuse, Miami, North Carolina State, and South Carolina. There’s also the matter of Dabo Swinney’s track record. Over the past 8 years, including postseason games, Dabo Swinney has gone 14-1, 14-1, 12-2, 15-0, 14-1, 10-2, 9-3, and 11-3. That’s quite a run. Those figures demonstrate that Clemson belongs among the elite programs and expects to be competing not just for conference championships, but national championships year in and year out. I think the Tigers get back to being in the College Football Playoff conversation and win the ACC with over 10 regular season wins in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: CLEMSON TIGERS OVER 10 WINS -130