Music City Bowl Prediction
Can Mississippi State handle being a favorite in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl when they take on Louisville today at 4PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
289 Mississippi State vs. 290 Louisville
Monday, December 30, 2019
4PM ET – Nissan Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Mississippi State is favored in this game, as the Bulldogs are getting odds of -4.5 points against Louisville. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 63.5 points. The public betting currently has 51 percent going on Mississippi State as the favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Cardinals can’t fide their stride
Louisville struggled to ever hit much of a stride this season and the Cardinals ended their regular season with a 45-13 loss at Kentucky. Louisville is 7-5 on the season, 7-5 against the spread and 7-5 with the over.
The Cardinals were a decent offense this season, averaging 32.7 points and 442.8 yards per game. That includes 215.2 rushing yards per contest. Defensively, Louisville is allowing 33.8 points and 446.3 yards per game. Their run defense gave up 211 yards per contest, ranking near the bottom of the nation. Micale Cunningham has emerged as the team leader with 1,786 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, while also rushing for 401 yards and six touchdowns. Javian Hawkins is the team’s leading rusher with 1,420 yards and eight touchdowns, while Tutu Atwell has caught 61 passes for 1,129 yards and 12 scores.
Bulldogs look for winning record
After struggling most of the season, Mississippi State won three of its last four to end the regular season, including a big 21-20 win over Ole Miss in the season finale. The Bulldogs were 6-6 this season, 5-7 against the spread and 6-6 with the over/under total.
Mississippi State didn’t have a dynamic offense, but a solid ground attack. The Bulldogs averaged 27.6 points and 402.9 yards per game, but put up 226.9 yards per game on the ground. Kylin Hill has led the rushing attack with 1,347 yards and 10 touchdowns. Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1,170 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 587 yards. He is out for this game due to an eye injury. Tommy Stevens, his backup, has thrown for 934 yards and nine TD’s, but he has an upper body injury. However, Stevens is expected to play today. Defensively, the Bulldogs allowed 28.1 points and 390.1 yards per contest.
College Football Betting Trends
The Cardinals are 4-12-1 against the spread in their last 17 non-conference games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
The Bulldogs are 0-4 against the spread in their last four against a winning team, but 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
These two met two years ago to the day, with Mississippi State picking up a 31-27 victory as a 6.5-point underdog. I could see the game playing out in a similar way today. Both offenses have the ability to move the ball and both defenses give up around 400 or more yards per game. The difference is Mississippi State has played the tougher competition. Louisville doesn’t provide a big challenge up front, so as long as the Bulldogs play with some motivation they should be able to cover this spread.
Music City Bowl Prediction: Mississippi State -4.5