Capital One Orange Bowl Prediction
Will Michigan cover as a touchdown favorite over Florida State when the teams clash at 8:00PM ET in the Capital One Bowl?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Wolverines are 7-point favorites versus the Seminoles while the over/under currently sits at 51 points. When the bowl lines were first released, Michigan was a 6-point favorite and the total was 56.5, so both the side and the over/under have moved significantly over the past few weeks.
MICHIGAN KEY TRENDS: The Wolverines are 4-1 against the spread in their last five non-conference games, are 7-2 against the number in their last nine games following a loss and are 11-4 at the betting window in their last 15 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. On the other side, Michigan is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in its previous game and is winless at 0-4 ATS in its last four games coming off a successful cover.
FLORIDA STATE KEY TRENDS: The Seminoles have been a great bet in bowl games, going 8-2-1 at the betting window in their last 11 bowl appearances. They're also 4-0 against the number in their last four games following a win, are 5-1 against the number in their last six non-conference games and are 4-1 at the betting window in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
OUR PREDICTION: The biggest question for tonight's game is how motivated Michigan will be after losing to Ohio State and being left out of the college football playoff. If they are motivated, then their defense should give the Seminoles fits. The Wolverines rank first in passing yards allowed, second in total yards allowed, second in points allowed and 12th in rushing yards allowed. They'll need to slow Dalvin Cook but if they accomplish that feat, then they should be able to handle FSU and cover as a touchdown-sized favorite.
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -7