Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl Pick
Is Air Force a safe bet as a double-digit favorite this evening when it takes on South Alabama in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl at 5:30PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Falcons are 14-point favorites versus the Jaguars while the over/under currently sitting at 57.5 points. South Alabama enters play with a 6-6 record while Air Force finished the regular season with a 9-3 record.
SOUTH ALABAMA KEY TRENDS: The Jaguars are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record and are 8-24 against the number in their last 32 games overall. They’re also just 3-13 against the number in their last 16 games following a win, are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, and are winless at 0-4 at the betting window in their last four games following an ATS loss.
AIR FORCE KEY TRENDS: The Falcons are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 non-conference games and have covered in 15 in their last 21 games coming off a win. They’re also 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 9-3 at the betting window inti her last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
OUR PREDICTION: The Falcons should roll today. Their option attack totaled 35 rushing touchdowns from eight different players during the regular season and is a pain to defense for good defenses, nevertheless for a South Alabama unit that allowed 212.1 rushing yards per game this season. The Jaguars are also allowing 25.5 points per game and 384 total yards per contest and while they’re only allowing 171.9 passing yards per game, Air Force isn’t going to put the ball in the air much anyway. The Falcons, meanwhile, struggle against the pass but rank 14th in the nation in rushing yards allowed and 39th in total yards allowed. It’s always risky to lay double-digits in a bowl game because you don’t know how motivated that team will be, but Air Force is a safe bet to come out focused and determined.
NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL: AIR FORCE FALCONS -14