Music City Bowl Total Prediction
Will Mississippi State be able to find enough offense to hit the over when the Bulldogs take on Louisville in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Monday at 4PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
289 Mississippi State vs. 290 Louisville
Monday, December 30, 2019
4PM ET – Nissan Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Mississippi State is favored in this game, as the Bulldogs are getting odds of -4 points against Louisville. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 63.5 points. The public betting currently is split down the middle, 50-50. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Bulldogs gaining steam
After struggling most of the season, Mississippi State won three of its last four to end the regular season, including a big 21-20 win over Ole Miss in the season finale. The Bulldogs were 6-6 this season, 5-7 against the spread and 6-6 with the over/under total.
Mississippi State didn’t have a dynamic offense, but a solid ground attack. The Bulldogs averaged 27.6 points and 402.9 yards per game, but put up 226.9 yards per game on the ground. Kylin Hill has led the rushing attack with 1,347 yards and 10 touchdowns. Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1,170 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 587 yards. He is out for this game due to an eye injury. Tommy Stevens, his backup, has thrown for 934 yards and nine TD’s, but he has an upper body injury that has him questionable to play. Defensively, the Bulldogs allowed 28.1 points and 390.1 yards per contest.
Cardinals struggle for consistency
Louisville struggled to ever hit much of a stride this season and the Cardinals ended their regular season with a 45-13 loss at Kentucky. Louisville is 7-5 on the season, 7-5 against the spread and 7-5 with the over.
The Cardinals were a decent offense this season, averaging 40 32.7 points and 442.8 yards per game. That includes 215.2 rushing yards per contest. Defensively, Louisville is allowing 33.8 points and 446.3 yards per game. Their run defense gave up 211 yards per contest, ranking near the bottom of the nation. Micale Cunningham has emerged as the team leader with 1,786 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, while also rushing for 401 yards and six touchdowns. Javian Hawkins is the team’s leading rusher with 1,420 yards and eight touchdowns, while Tutu Atwell has caught 61 passes for 1,129 yards and 12 scores.
College Football Betting Trends
The Bulldogs are 4-1 with the over in their last five non-conference games and 5-2 with the over in their last seven games on a neutral field.
The Cardinals have hit the under in five straight bowl games and in five straight games in December.
These two actually met in a bowl game two years ago, with Mississippi State earning a 31-27 win thanks to a run game that put up 277 yards. I could see a similar situation playing out on Monday. The Bulldogs will be banged up at QB, so they will have to pound the rock consistently, and they should be able to do that against this Louisville run defense. The Cardinals have some playmakers themselves, which should allow them to score some points as well and help the over hit.
Music City Bowl Prediction: Mississippi State/Louisville Over 63.5