St. Petersburg Bowl Prediction

St. Petersburg Bowl Miami OH vs. Mississippi State Predictions 12/26/16

Can Miami Ohio hang with Mississippi State this morning when the two square off in the St. Petersburg Bowl at 11:00AM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Bulldogs are now 14.5-point favorites over the Redhawks after opening as an 11.5-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 58 and that's where it currently sits at the majority of online and Vegas sports books.

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MIAMI OH KEY TRENDS: The Redhawks have covered in five of their last six games overall and are 7-3 against the number in their last 10 non-conference games. They're also 7-3 at the betting window in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record and are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

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MISSISSIPPI STATE KEY TRENDS: The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games coming off a win of more than 20 points and have covered in five of their last seven games played in the month of December. That said, they're just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game and are 1-5 against the number in their last six games coming off an ATS win.

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OUR PREDICTION: Our College Football Public Betting page shows that 61% of public bettors are backing the SEC team this morning, which is one reason why the line has moved past the key number of 14.5. But I see value in the underdog Redhawks. For starters, how excited is Mississippi State to be playing in an early bowl game against a MAC program that went 6-6 this season? Granted, the Bulldogs only finished 5-7 so they're fortunate to be playing in a bowl but this is a bigger opportunity for the Redhawks to show that they can hang with a SEC team, rather than Mississippi State having anything to prove against a MAC opponent. Plus, the Redhawks won six straight games just to reach a bowl and averaged nearly 30 points in the process. They also limited four of six opponents to 20 points or fewer so I like Miami Ohio to stay within two touchdowns today of Mississippi State.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL PREDICTION: MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS +14.5

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