St. Petersburg Bowl Prediction
Can Miami Ohio hang with Mississippi State this morning when the two square off in the St. Petersburg Bowl at 11:00AM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Bulldogs are now 14.5-point favorites over the Redhawks after opening as an 11.5-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 58 and that's where it currently sits at the majority of online and Vegas sports books.
MIAMI OH KEY TRENDS: The Redhawks have covered in five of their last six games overall and are 7-3 against the number in their last 10 non-conference games. They're also 7-3 at the betting window in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record and are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
MISSISSIPPI STATE KEY TRENDS: The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games coming off a win of more than 20 points and have covered in five of their last seven games played in the month of December. That said, they're just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game and are 1-5 against the number in their last six games coming off an ATS win.
OUR PREDICTION: Our College Football Public Betting page shows that 61% of public bettors are backing the SEC team this morning, which is one reason why the line has moved past the key number of 14.5. But I see value in the underdog Redhawks. For starters, how excited is Mississippi State to be playing in an early bowl game against a MAC program that went 6-6 this season? Granted, the Bulldogs only finished 5-7 so they're fortunate to be playing in a bowl but this is a bigger opportunity for the Redhawks to show that they can hang with a SEC team, rather than Mississippi State having anything to prove against a MAC opponent. Plus, the Redhawks won six straight games just to reach a bowl and averaged nearly 30 points in the process. They also limited four of six opponents to 20 points or fewer so I like Miami Ohio to stay within two touchdowns today of Mississippi State.
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL PREDICTION: MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS +14.5