Dollar General Bowl Prediction
Can Ohio pull off the small upset tonight when it takes on Troy in the Dollar General Bowl at 8:00PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Trojans are 4.5-point favorites versus the Bobcats while the over/under currently sits at 49.5 points. While the point spread hasn't moved off the original number posted by oddsmakers, the total opened at 49 before jumping up slightly to 49.5.
OHIO KEY TRENDS: The Bobcats are 5-1 against the spread in their last six neutral site games, are 9-2 against the number in their last 11 non-conference games, and are 4-1 at the betting window in their last five games versus Sun Belt opponents. They've also covered in 24 of their last 33 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
TROY KEY TRENDS: The Trojans have been a solid bet coming off losses, covering in five of their last six games following defeat. They're also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games versus an opponent that owns a winning record, are 18-7-1 against the number in their last 26 games following an ATS loss, and are 5-2 at the betting window in their last seven non-conference matchups.
OUR PREDICTION: Ohio has a good chance to pull off the upset tonight because of its defense. The Bobcats surrendered 56 points to Texas State in triple overtime in their season opener and then held every opponent to fewer than 30 points following that defeat. That statistic also includes a 29-23 loss to undefeated Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game in early December, a game in which Ohio covered easily as a 16.5-point underdog. The Bobcats rank 32nd in the nation in total yards allowed, are seventh in rushing yards allowed, and are 26th in points allowed, surrendering just 22.2 PPG. They do struggle against the pass (104th), and Troy does like to sling it, but I like Ohio to keep things tight.
DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL PREDICTION: OHIO BOBCATS +4.5