SEC Championship Game Prediction
Is the under a good bet when Alabama and Florida square off in today's SEC Championship Game at 4:00PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Gators are now 24-point underdogs versus the Crimson Tide, who opened as a 21.5-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 40 and has been bet up slightly to 40.5.
ALABAMA KEY TRENDS: The Crimson Tide are 5-1 against the spread the spread in their last six conference games and have covered in six of seven coming off a game in which they failed to cover the number in their previous contest. They're also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall, are 12-4 at the betting window in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
FLORIDA KEY TRENDS: The Gators are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven neutral site games, and are 3-1-1 against the number in their last five conference tilts. They're 5-2-1 against the number in their last eight games coming off a loss as well.
OUR PREDICTION: I don't feel comfortable laying 24 points in a conference championship game that has no meeting to the final playoff rankings (Bama is in no matter what happens today) and I'm not wild about backing a Florida team with no offense either. Thus, the safest play on the board might be the under, even though the over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Tide leads the FBS in defensive efficiency and the Gators have gotten pressure on the quarterback on 38 percent of dropbacks this season, which is the second-highest rate in the Power 5 behind Michigan. Everyone is well aware of Florida's struggles on offense, as the unit ranks 88th out of 128 FBS schools this season in offensive efficiency. The Gators might not reach the red zone once in this game and if the defense can hold on, I see this as a 30-6 game. Remember, Florida head coach Jim McElwain was Nick Saban's former offensive coordinator. I can't imagine Saban would run up the score on McElwain if the game is out of hand in the fourth quarter. I'm sure I'll sweat this one out until the bitter end, but I like the under.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: ALABAMA/FLORIDA UNDER 40.5