Baylor vs. TCU Prediction
Are the TCU Horned Frogs laying too many points to the visiting Baylor Bears on Friday when the Big 12 rivals meet at 12:00 p.m. ET? Here's why they might be.
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: TCU. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Horned Frogs are 24.5-point home favorites versus the Bears, who opened as a 23.5-point underdog. The total, meanwhile, is also sitting at 51 points after hitting the board at 50.5.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: TCU. Despite the big number, 63% of betting tickets are on the Horned Frogs to cover the spread.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: TCU and the over. The Bears are winless at 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus the Horned Frogs and are 0-4 at the betting window in their last four road games versus TCU. The over has also cashed in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
WHO WE LIKE: Baylor. Despite the Bears being winless at the betting window in their last five games versus the Frogs, the underdog is also a perfect 6-0 against the number in the last six games between these two teams and I believe it'll be 7-0 by Friday afternoon.
TCU has failed to cover in five of its last seven games when facing a team with a losing record. The Frogs are also 3-12 against the number in their last 15 games on grass and are just 2-11 at the betting window in their last 13 home games. Finally, Gary Patterson's team is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
I just don't know what TCU's motivation is for this game. Baylor has stunk all year and I look for this game to be low-scoring throughout so I'll take the underdog.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 PICK: BAYLOR BEARS +24.5