N.C. State vs. UNC Pick
Will North Carolina and North Carolina State have a defensive battle when the two rivals meet on Friday at Noon ET?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, North Carolina is favored at home in this game, as the Tar Heels are getting odds of -11.5 points against N.C. State. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 58.5 points. The road team has actually won three straight in this series and the two have hit the under in four of their last six encounters.
North Carolina is coming off a 41-7 win over The Citadel last week to move to 8-3 on the season and 7-4 against the spread. The Heels lost their last ACC game, 28-27 to Duke to fall to 5-2 in conference play. UNC is 7-4 with the under this season and have hit the under in six of their last seven games. The unders are surprising considering they have averaged 34.2 points and 445.1 yards per game. The Heels have a great passing game behind Mitch Trubisky, who has thrown for 3,188 yards and 25 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Ryan Switzer is the leading receiver with 78 catches for 856 yards and four scores. When it comes to the ground game Elijah Hood has run for 802 yards and eight touchdowns. Defensively, UNC is giving up 411.8 yards per game, but just 24.6 points per contest. The Heels struggle against the run, allowing 233.4 yards per game.
N.C. State is coming off a 27-13 loss to Miami last week to fall to 5-6 on the season and 2-5 in the ACC. The Wolfpack are 6-4-1 with the under this year, having hit it in four straight games coming into this week. N.C. State has a respectable defense that is giving up just 23.5 points and 350.8 yards per game, but the offense is averaging just 25.6 points per contest. N.C. State has a pretty good run game, as Matthew Dayes has 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns. Quarterback Ryan Finley has thrown for 2,669 yards and 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions. N.C. State racks up the yards, but has struggled to finish drives.
This is a rivalry game, so expect some added physicality and emotion. N.C. State has been able to make things somewhat tough on opposing offenses, holding their last four opponents to 27 points or less. While UNC has an above average offense, they should struggle to contain Dayes, which will allow the Wolfpack to control the tempo of the game and slow things down. N.C. State knows it will need to limit UNC’s possession to possibly win, so that should lead to a low-scoring game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 PICK: NC STATE/NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 58.5