Kentucky vs. Tennessee Total Prediction
SEC rivals meet in Knoxville on Saturday afternoon when the Tennessee Volunteers host the Kentucky Wildcats at 3:30 p.m. ET. Will this matchup turn into a defensive struggle for under bettors or is there some value in the over?
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 10
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Wildcats are 6-point favorites to beat the Volunteers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 42.5 points. As of this writing, 67% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Wildcats.
Kentucky redshirt sophomore Terry Wilson completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards and one touchdown in Saturday's 34-17 loss to Georgia. Wilson (6'3/205) went over 200 yards on better than 70% completions in the second-consecutive game. That's the good news. The bad is that defenses are keying on the run and Kentucky still can't generate explosive passing plays, instead generating yards with a variety of screens and quick-hitters. This is because of limitations to Wilson's game, which serves to cap Kentucky's offensive ceiling (to be entirely fair, Wilson's legs have appreciably raised the floor of this offense all year). Kentucky, now 7-2, will look to bounce back at Tennessee next week.
Tennessee redshirt sophomore QB Jarrett Guarantano completed 16-of-21 passes for 172 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in Saturday's 14-3 win against Charlotte. It wasn't pretty, but Guarantano didn't make any mistakes either in leading the Vols to the home win to keep their bowl hopes alive. Guarantano has nine touchdowns and just two interceptions through nine appearances this season, and both of those miscues came in the blowout loss against Florida back on Sept. 22. He takes care of the ball well, but he doesn't take a lot of chances or roll up big stats, either. They'll try to get back to .500 next weekend against Kentucky.
The under is 4-1 in the Wildcats’ last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
The over is 5-0 in the Volunteers’ last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Even though the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and the total is sitting in the low-40s, there’s no reason to bet the over in a Kentucky game. The Wildcats play excellent defense, the run the ball, eat clock and have played in low-scoring games all season long. The under is 5-1 in the Wildcats’ last six games, is 6-1 in their last seven conference matchups, and is 9-4 in the Volunteers’ last 13 home games.
College Football Prediction: Kentucky/Tennessee under 42.5