Air Force vs. Nevada Total Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Air Force is favored on the road, as the Falcons are getting odds of -6 points against Nevada. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 67.5 points. The home team has won the last three in this series and the two have hit the over in the three encounters. The public is currently putting 76 percent of the wagers on Air Force on the road. Friday’s game takes place from Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada. The contest will air live on the CBS Sports Network.
Air Force is coming off a 34-30 win at home over UNLV last week to improve to 2-4 on the season and 1-2 in conference play. The Falcons are 4-2 with the over on the season and 2-1 with the over on the road. Air Force is putting up 36 points and 439.7 yards per game behind a ground attack that averages 306.7 yards per contest. Arion Worthman has run for 550 yards and 10 touchdowns while throwing for 725 yards and eight scores to lead the offense. Timothy McVey has added 380 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Air Force defense is giving up 31.8 points and 383 yards per contest.
Nevada is coming off a 44-42 loss at Colorado State to fall to 1-6 on the season and 1-2 in conference play. Nevada is 5-2 with the under this year, hitting it in all three home games. Nevada is struggling on defense, allowing 35.6 points and 495.1 yards per game, including 326.1 passing yards per contest. Offensively, Nevada is averaging 25.3 points and 392.1 yards per game. Ty Gangi has thrown for 1,435 yards and 14 touchdowns to lead the offense while McLane Mannix and Wyatt Demps have combined for 78 receptions, 1,087 yards and 12 touchdowns. Kelton Moore is the leading rusher with 442 yards.
I am a little torn on this game. Air Force can move the ball, but Nevada tends to struggle more against the pass than the run. Nevada doesn’t have a great offense, while Air Force doesn’t have much of a defense. However, the Nevada strength isn’t running, which is the Air Force weakness. I think this leads to the under hitting, as both teams may need a little more time to compose scoring drives. Nevada has hit the under in 20 of its last 28 home games and in 15 of its last 20 against a losing team.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: AIR FORCE/NEVADA UNDER 67.5