Indiana vs. Michigan St. Total Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Michigan State is favored at home, as the Spartans are getting odds of -6.5 points against Indiana. The over/under total is listed at 46.5 points. Michigan State has won seven of the last eight in this series and the two have hit the over in eight of their last nine encounters. The public is currently putting 65 percent of the wagers on Michigan State at home. Saturday’s game takes place from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan and the contest will air live on ABC.
Indiana is coming off a 27-20 OT loss at home to Michigan to fall to 3-3 on the season and 0-3 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are 3-3 with the over/under total, hitting the under in both road games this year. Indiana has been respectable on defense this year, allowing 25.8 points and 353 yards per game this season. On offense, IU is putting up 28 points and 386.7 yards per contest. Richard Lagow is dealing with an injury and may be unable to play. He has 681 passing yards with four touchdowns this year while Peyton Ramsey has thrown for 815 yards and seven touchdowns in his place. Morgan Ellison has run for 426 yards and three touchdowns while Ramsey has 185 yards on the ground. Simmie Cobbs Jr. is the leading receiver with 37 receptions for 409 yards and three touchdowns.
Michigan State is coming off a 30-27 road win over Minnesota to improve to 5-1 on the season and 3-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are 4-2 with the under this season, going 3-1 with the under at home. MSU has been led by its defense, as the Spartans are giving up just 18.2 points and 263.8 yards per game. On offense, MSU is putting up 23.7 points and 389.2 yards per game. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,177 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for 318 yards and three touchdowns. L.J. Scott has added 408 rushing yards with three touchdowns as well.
Indiana is having a better year defensively than normal and Michigan State has a solid defense with an inconsistent offense. The Spartans can be tough to stop when they run the ball effectively, but turnovers have been an issue and I think Indiana will be ready to challenge up front after competing with Michigan last week. Michigan State has hit the under in five of its last six home games and IU has hit the under in four straight on the road. I think these two keep the score low on Saturday.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: INDIANA/MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 46.5