Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction

Penn State vs. Michigan 10/15/22 Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

Number ten Penn State heads to Ann Arbor to face number five Michigan at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Wolverines score enough to win and cover the spread as 7-point home favorites?

Penn State is 5-0 on the year, with nonconference wins over Auburn and Central Michigan. The Nittany Lions have conference wins over Purdue and Northwestern on the season. The Nittany Lions are 3-2 ATS on the year. 

Michigan is 6-0 on the year with conference wins over Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana. The Wolverines are looking to remain undefeated on Saturday. The Wolverines are 3-3 ATS on the season.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

127 Penn State Nittany Lions +7 at 128 Michigan Wolverines -7; O/U 50.5 

12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 15th, 2022

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Penn State vs. Michigan Public Betting Information

The public is favoring the Nittany Lions in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 58% of public bets are on Penn State +7. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Penn State Game Notes

Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford will be the key to this game. Clifford has played two games against conference opponents this season and won both. But he posted wildly different numbers in each game. In Week 1 against Purdue, the senior from Cincinnati was great, throwing for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns en route to a 35-31 Penn State win. On October 1st against Northwestern, Sean Clifford struggled. He completed 10 of 20 passes for 140 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception as Penn State beat a bad Northwestern team 17-7. It’s worth noting that the Northwestern game was affected by heavy rain falling most of the day, but the point still remains: Sean Clifford has to play well for Penn State to have a shot at covering this game. That’s going to be a big ask, as Michigan is allowing just 165.3 passing yards per game, the 6th-best mark in the country.         

Michigan Game Notes               

It finally seems like the Michigan Wolverines have found their quarterback. Sophomore J.J. McCarthy has thrown for 1,152 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception this season. He’s averaging an efficient 9.6 yards per pass attempt and is second in the Big Ten with a passer rating of 182.1. McCarthy’s favorite target this year has been senior wide receiver Ronnie Bell. Bell is 8th in the Big Ten with 390 receiving yards on the campaign. The 6’0” 190-pound Kansas City native is averaging 13 yards per catch. Michigan may elect to air it out on Saturday as Penn State’s pass defense is permitting an average of 260.2 passing yards per game, which is tied for 88th out of 131 FBS teams.      

Penn State vs. Michigan Betting Trends

Penn State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game.

Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.

The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between Penn State and Michigan.

Penn State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Michigan. 

Penn State vs. Michigan Betting Prediction

Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh and Michigan are covering machines. Michigan is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. They’re also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in October. I think this is a really tough spot for Penn State as they have to play in the Big House at noon local time and try to slow down a Michigan offense that is beating opponents by an average of 31.7 points per game. If that wasn’t enough, Michigan’s defense is stout too, allowing only 3.7 yards per play, the second-best mark in the country behind Alabama. I think Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines win convincingly and cover on Saturday.


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