MSU vs. Penn State Prediction

Penn State vs. Michigan State, 10/13/18 College Football Predictions

Is No. 8 Penn State ready to put on a lopsided victory over a wounded Michigan State team when the two meet up in Big Ten play today at 3:30PM ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

201 Michigan State at 202 Penn State

Saturday, October 13, 2018

3:30PM ET – Beaver Stadium

TV: Big Ten Network

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Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers at, Penn State is favored at home, as the Nittany Lions are getting odds of -13 points against Michigan State. The over/under total for the game is listed at 53 points. The public betting for this game currently has 72 percent going on Penn State at home. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.

Penn State comes in fresh

Penn State is coming off a bye last week, a week after suffering a 27-26 loss to Ohio State at home. The Nittany Lions are now 4-1 on the season, 1-1 in the Big Ten, 4-1 against the spread and 4-1 with the over. The Nittany Lions are 2-1 against the spread at home.

The Nittany Lions have been dominant on offense throughout the year, averaging 49.6 points and 510 yards per game. Trace McSorley has thrown for 1,049 yards and 10 touchdowns while rushing for 410 yards and six scores. Miles Sanders has added 538 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is giving up 21 points and 354.4 yards per game. Their run defense is giving up 161.8 yards per contest.

MSU struggling up front

Michigan State is coming off a surprising 29-19 loss at home to Northwestern last weekend to fall to 3-2 on the season. The Spartans are 1-1 in the Big Ten, 1-4 against the spread and 4-1 with the over. MSU’s lone cover was on the road, against Indiana.

MSU has one of the best run defenses in the nation, allowing just 33.8 yards per game, yet they are giving up over 300 passing yards per game and 23.4 points per contest. Offensively, MSU is averaging 27.2 points and 389.8 yards per contest. The offense is dealing with a lot of injuries. Their offensive line is stacked with injuries and LJ Scott continues to sit out with a hamstring injury. Scott has warmed up the last few weeks and then not ended up playing. It’s unclear if he will play today, as he has looked ready to play in previous weeks and still been held out. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,328 yards and six touchdowns to lead the offense, but also has six interceptions.

College Football Betting Trends

Penn State

Penn State is 13-2-2 against the spread in its last 17 against winning teams and 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 at home.

Michigan State

Michigan State is 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 road games and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games in October.


Usually known for playing up in the big games and down in the others, some may take pause at the spread here because of Michigan State’s history. However, the Spartans have some real issues. They showed up last week against Northwestern and at Arizona State. Their offensive line is a mess and unable to provide run or pass blocking. Lewerke is without one of his best receivers in Cody White, who has a broken hand. MSU just doesn’t have the playmakers to overcome that. While MSU has a great run defense, its pass defense has not been good and Trace McSorley should take advantage of that.

College Football Prediction: Penn State -13

Related: Michigan State vs. Penn State Total Prediction

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