Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction & Odds

Baylor vs. Iowa State 09/24/22 Betting Prediction and Odds

Number 17 Baylor heads to Ames, Iowa to face conference foe Iowa State at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Bears cover the small number as road underdogs?

Baylor is 2-1 on the season, with wins over Albany and Texas State in their first and third contests. They lost a double-overtime game to BYU 26-20 in week 2. The Bears are 2-1 ATS on the season. 

Iowa State is 3-0 with wins over Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, and Ohio on the year. They beat Ohio last week at home by a score of 43-10. The Cyclones are 2-1 ATS on the campaign.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

313 Baylor Bears +2.5 at 314 Iowa State Cyclones  -2.5; O/U 45.5

12:00 PM ET Saturday, September 24th, 2022

Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA

Baylor vs. Iowa State Public Betting Information

The public is heavily favoring the Bears in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 68% of public bets are on Baylor. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Baylor Game Notes

Freshman running back Richard Reese has been a revelation for the Bears in the early parts of the season. He has 34 carries for 237 yards and 5 touchdowns through three games on the year. He’s averaging an efficient 7.0 yards per tote. In the BYU game, he only carried the ball 6 times, and this may have been one reason why Baylor ultimately lost that game. The Baylor coaching staff will likely try to get him more involved on Saturday.

One injury status to monitor is Bears’ tight end Ben Sims. The 6’5” 258-pound senior had 4 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown in the loss to BYU but missed last week’s game against Texas State. He’s questionable with a head injury for Saturday’s clash with the Cyclones, and he could be a difference maker if he suits up.

Iowa State Game Notes

Iowa State’s star player on offense is wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson. The 6’3” 205-pound senior from Jacksonville broke out last year, hauling in 83 passes for 987 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s continued to produce this year, as he’s recorded at least 90 receiving yards and a touchdown in each game. 

If Cyclones’ QB Hunter Dekkers can get Hutchinson the ball in space, and limit his own mistakes (he threw 2 interceptions against Iowa), Iowa State might have a chance to knock off their first ranked opponent of the year.    

Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Trends

Baylor is 16-10 straight up since the beginning of 2020.

Iowa State is 19-9 straight up since the beginning of 2020.

57% of the handle is on Baylor +2.5.

Baylor is 12-5 ATS dating back to the beginning of last year. 

Iowa State is 7-9 ATS dating back to the beginning of last season.

Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Iowa State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

The under is 5-0 in Baylor’s last 5 games following an outright win. 

The under is 5-0 in Baylor’s last 5 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Prediction

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has done a great job with the program. The Bears won the Big 12 title last year, and have a straight-up record of 14-3 since the beginning of 2021. What’s more, as I touched on above, they are 12-5 against the spread in that same span. Per ESPN’s Chris Fallica, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is 5-12 in games where the spread is between -3.5 and +3.5. That’s the fifth-worst winning percentage in close-spread games of any coach with a minimum of 10 games coached during that span. I think Baylor is better and they’re a live money line underdog at +120. But I’ll take the points here.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 PREDICTION: BAYLOR BEARS +2.5

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