Virginia vs. Boise St. Total Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Boise State is favored at home in this one, as the Broncos are getting odds of -11.5 points against the Cavaliers. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 51.5 points. These two last met in the 2015 season with Boise State picking up a 56-14 win over Virginia. The two easily went over the 48.5-point total. Friday’s game takes place from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho and will air live on ESPN2.
Boise State has started the season 2-1, losing in triple OT to Washington State a few weeks ago. The Broncos are 2-1 with the under thus far, as they are averaging 32 points per game on offense while giving up 24.7 points per game on defense. Despite the good scoring numbers, the Broncos are averaging just 340.7 yards per game on offense. Brett Rypien sat out last week’s game against Troy due to his head injury, but could return this week. Montell Cozart has thrown for 348 yards and five touchdowns in his place while also rushing for 179 yards and two scores. He is the team’s leading rusher as well as leading passer. Cedrick Wilson is the team’s leading receiver with 16 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Boise is strong against the run, allowing just 98.7 per game.
Virginia has started this season 2-1 as well, with a 34-17 loss at home to Indiana as the lone blemish. The Cavaliers are also 2-1 with the under. UVA averages 27.7 points per game right now while allowing 20.7 per game. The Cavs have a great defense, allowing only 327.3 yards per game. However, the run defense is giving up 162 yards per contest. On offense, Virginia is relying on the pass game, as it is putting up 325.3 yard per game. Kurt Benkert has thrown for 976 yards and seven touchdowns with an interception. Three different receivers have over 200 yards as well while Jordan Ellis is the leading rusher with 219 yards and three scores.
Both teams have their strengths on offense and defense, but I see this game being a low-scoring one. Boise State has hit the under in 12 of its last 15 home games and in five of its last seven non-conference games. Virginia has hit the under in 10 of its last 15 on the road and in 26 of its last 36 after a win. Both offenses will have to grind out possessions that eat up clock in order to score. Still, many of those drives will end up with no points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: VIRGINIA/BOISE STATE UNDER 51.5