Boise State vs. FSU Prediction
Weather has forced the featured game between Florida State and Boise State to shift location and time. How will it impact this Noon ET contest?
Game Snapshot & Odds
191 Boise State vs. 192 Florida State
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Noon ET – Doak Campbell Stadium
TV: ESPN News
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Florida State is the slight favorite in this game, as the Seminoles are getting odds of -6.5 points against Boise State. The over/under total is listed at 54.5 points. The public betting currently has 72 percent going on Florida State as the favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
FSU gets a home game
Florida State is coming off a rough 2018 season where it went 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the ACC. Willie Taggart enters his second season as head coach of the Seminoles, but he is hoping for a big turnaround this year. FSU was only 4-8 against the spread last year and 8-4 with the over. This game was originally scheduled to be played in Jacksonville, but will now be a home game for FSU out of concerns of the oncoming hurricane.
The FSU offense was a mess last year, averaging just 21.9 points and 361.2 yards per game. Their run game ranked 126th nationally with just 91 yards per game. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 706 yards, but they need more from him this season. James Blackman saw limited time at QB last year and will be the starter this year. He threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns in 2018. He has his top target back in Tamorrion Terry, who caught eight touchdowns passes. Defensively, FSU gave up 31.5 points and 416.3 yards per game last season. The defense has seven starters back this year, but the Seminoles lose a lot up front.
Boise State the class of the non-power five
Boise State is coming off another 10-win season in 2018 where it was 7-1 in the Mountain West. The Broncos are entering their sixth season with Bryan Harsin as head coach. Boise was 7-5-1 against the spread last year while going 8-5 with the under.
The Broncos had a solid offense and defense last season. The offense put up 35.4 points and 459.5 yards per game. They averaged close to 300 yards per game through the air last year, but lose all of their top skill-position players. The team is going with Hank Bachmeier, a true freshman, to lead the offense in the season opener. He has a veteran offensive line to help him, as all five starters are back on the line. CT Thomas and John Hightower combined for over 1,000 receiving yards in 2018, but will need a bigger role this season. Defensively, Boise State gave up just 22.1 points and 355.9 yards per game. The Broncos have seven starters back this year on defense. The defensive line alone has three starters back.
College Football Betting Trends
Florida State is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 non-conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games in August.
The Broncos are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 road games, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five games in August.
Things have shifted greatly in this game, now moving to FSU’s home field. That certainly makes things more challenging for Boise State. The spread hasn’t changed a great deal despite the changes, but the Broncos can’t love the new location. Florida State was pretty awful last season, but a second year under this coaching staff should help get some things on track. Boise State is a physical team, but the Broncos are replacing a ton of skill-position players. I think that is going to be a problem against the speed of FSU. I am going to go with the Seminoles at home minus the points, as I think they find a way to win and cover here.
College Football Week 1 Prediction: Florida State -6.5