Ole Miss vs. Memphis Prediction
Can Memphis secure a big win at home to open the season when the Tigers play host to Ole Miss on Saturday at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
175 Ole Miss vs. 176 Memphis
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Noon ET – Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Memphis is the slight favorite at home, as the Tigers are getting odds of -5.5 points against Ole Miss. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 68 points. The public betting currently has 57 percent going on Memphis as the favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Rebels trying to overcome
It’s been a tough couple of years for Memphis and head coach Matt Luke after the debacle of the Hugh Freeze-era. The Rebels were just 5-7 last season with a 1-7 record in the SEC. Ole Miss was only 3-9 against the spread while going 6-6 with the over/under total.
The Rebels were pretty formidable on offense, averaging 33.9 points and 510.5 yards per game. However, the Ole Miss defense was among the worst in the nation by allowing 36.2 points and 483.5 yards per contest. Ole Miss will bring back eight starters on defense this year. Offensively, just three starters are back for Ole Miss. They will have to rely heavily on running back Scottie Phillips, who rushed for 928 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018. Redshirt freshman Matt Coral is going to get the start at quarterback this season. He has to work in new starters at receiver and three new starters on the offensive line.
Tigers hoping for quick start
Memphis is coming off an 8-6 record in 2018, the third year for coach Mike Norvell. He guided the Tigers to a 5-3 record in the AAC. This is a big season opener for the Tigers and a chance to earn a win over a SEC team. Memphis was 8-6 against the spread last year as well while going 8-6 with the over.
The Tigers averaged 42.9 points and 523.1 yards per game on offense last season, which ranked in the top 10 in the nation. The offense has quarterback Brady White back this year. He threw for 3,296 yards and 26 touchdowns last season as a sophomore. He loses his top target and leading rusher, but Patrick Taylor Jr. is back in the backfield. Taylor was second on the team with 1,122 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
Ole Miss is just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games on fieldturf, but 4-1 against the spread in its last five non-conference games.
The Tigers have covered the spread in four straight home games, but are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 against SEC opponents.
The home team has won the last three meetings between these two, going 2-0-1 against the spread as well. Memphis has earned some big wins in recent years, but this is going to be a big test. Ole Miss didn’t look great last season, but the Rebels should be stronger on defense this year. With a lot of new starters being worked in, Memphis may not be able to run all over Ole Miss and simply outscore the Rebels. Ultimately, this game comes down to proven talent. Memphis has that in White and Taylor. I would expect them to come through down the stretch while Ole Miss still seeks the leadership it needs to win close games.
College Football Week 1 Prediction: Memphis -5.5