Miami vs. Florida Prediction
Can No. 8 Florida find a way to make the Manny Diaz debut at Miami a sour one when the two in-state foes meet up tonight in Orlando at 7PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
291 Florida vs. 292 Miami
Saturday, August 24, 2019
7PM ET – Camping World Stadium
Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Florida is the favorite in this game, as the Gators are getting odds of -7 points against Miami. The over/under total is currently listed at 46 points. The public betting currently has 60 percent going on Florida as the favorite.
Miami begins with Diaz
The Miami Hurricanes are coming off a 7-6 record in the 2018 season where they went just 4-4 in the ACC. Miami comes into this year with a new coach in Manny Diaz, who is making his head-coaching debut. Last year, the Canes were 5-8 against the spread while going 7-5-1 with the under.
Like Florida, Miami was actually quite solid on defense. The Canes gave up just 19.5 points and 278.6 yards per game. They led the nation in pass defense by giving up just 135.6 yards per game through the air. That defense has six starters back, but loses a lot of starters in the secondary. Offensively, Miami was pretty bad in 2018. The Canes averages just 28.8 points and 358.8 yards per game. Their pass attack averaged only 167 yards per game. Miami is handing the offense over to Jarren Williams, who has thrown just three passes in his college career. The redshirt freshman won a competitive QB battle in the spring and preseason. The Canes may need to rely on running back DeeJay Dallas early on. He rushed for 617 yards and six touchdowns as a sophomore.
Gators hoping to contend
The Florida Gators enter the 2019 season as a preseason top-10 squad after going 10-3 last year. Florida put up a record of 9-4 against the spread while going 8-4-1 with the over in the 2018 season.
Florida has been strong on defense over the years and last year was no different. The Gators gave up just 20 points and 338.7 yards per game. Their pass defense ranked 12th nationally by allowing just 178.9 yards per contest. That defense has eight starters back for this season. Florida’s offense saw a boost in production in the first year of coach Dan Mullen a year ago. The Gators put up 35 points and 428.7 yards per game. Feleipe Franks took a step forward as a QB, throwing for 2,457 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also rushing for 350 yards and seven scores. Florida also has leading rusher Lamical Perine back this year. He rushed for 826 yards last season and seven touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
Miami is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games in August, but just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on a neutral field.
Florida has covered the spread in five straight non-conference games, but is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against ACC opponents.
Miami has a tough draw here. The Hurricanes are playing their first game in an entirely new system with a new coaching staff and its coming against a Florida team that is pretty sound on both sides of the field and returns a good deal of starters. I think the Gators will show far less rust and be able to build off last year’s strong run under Dan Mullen. While Miami’s defense can still put up a fight, I would expect the offense to continue to struggle, especially against this Florida defense.
College Football Week 1 Prediction: Florida -7