Boise State Win Total Prediction
The top non-Power 5 team in the country over the past couple decades has been Boise State. Will the Broncos make a push for a New Year’s 6 bowl again in 2019?
Bryan Harsin steps into his sixth season as head coach of the Broncos. He is 52-15 in his first five years, including four double-digit win seasons. The Broncos have won at least 11 games in two of his five years, but both included a bowl victory. According to oddsmakers, Boise State is listed with an over/under of 10 wins during the regular season in 2019. The over is listed at -125, while the under is listed at +105.
The Broncos were a solid offense in the 2018 season, averaging 35.4 points and 459.5 yards per game behind a passing game that averaged nearly 300 yards per contest. However, gone is Brett Rypien. The replacement looks to be a battle between three guys in Chase Cord, Jaylon Henderson and true freshman Hank Bachmeier. Cord is still recovering from a knee injury last October, which has opened the door for Bachmeier, a highly-touted recruit. The good news for the new QB is that the Broncos have their entire starting offensive line back, but the team loses their top two receivers and leading rusher. Alexander Mattison rushed for 1,415 yards and 17 touchdowns. That is a lot of production lost for the Broncos. At receiver, CT Thomas is the top returning option. He had 41 catches for 535 yards and three scores last year.
Defense has usually been a solid point for Boise State and last year wasn’t much different. While not dominant, the Broncos gave up just 22.1 points and 355.9 yards per game. This year’s unit has seven starters back. Leading tackler Kekoa Nawahine is back at safety after putting up 71 tackles in 2018. Also back is sack leader Curtis Weaver, who had 9.5 sacks and 43 tackles in 2018 from the STUD position. Boise had just seven interceptions as a team last year, and no fumble recoveries as a defense. Those numbers will need to improve this year.
Boise State opens up its season on Aug. 31 against Florida State at TIAA Bank in Jacksonville. The Broncos then host Marshall and Portland State while traveling to BYU. In Mountain West play, Boise State will host Air Force, Hawaii, Wyoming and New Mexico. The Broncos hit the road to face UNLV, San Jose State, Utah State and Colorado State.
We all think of Boise State as an unbeatable force in the Mountain West, but their history says the Broncos aren’t quite so dominant. Since joining the MWC, they have only won the league title outright twice in eight seasons. They also have gotten 11 regular-season wins just once in that span. While Boise State should have a great defense, then exodus of all the skill-position players on offense should create some problems early on. The game with Florida State could be very challenging and road trips to BYU and Utah State won’t be a cake walk. Boise has had some letdown losses over the years and you can’t have those if you want to go 11-1.
College Football Prediction: Boise State Under 10 Wins +105