MSU-NW Point Spread Dancing

Michigan State at Northwestern Betting Strategy: Sharps on Dog? 2/17/18

There has been some interesting line movement this morning on today's Big Ten matchup between Michigan State and Northwestern. Are the sharps betting the home dog?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Spartans opened as 7.5-point favorites and that's where the line currently sits. That said, as previously alluded to, there has been some interesting movement on the spread this morning.

On Friday evening, Michigan State hit the board at -7.5. By 7:00 a.m. Saturday morning, the Spartans climbed to -8 and roughly an hour later, the line hit 8.5 at most online sportsbooks. That said, it didn't stay there.  

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Around 9:15 a.m. this morning, oddsmakers again adjusted the spread, only this time in favor of Northwestern. Despite 74% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks being on Sparty, the line dropped a full point back to the original number of 7.5.

Now, this could mean a variety of things. One option is that sharps are on both sides of the game and they're attempting to "middle" the line by taking Michigan State at -7.5 and Northwestern at +8.5. Sharps could also be split, with wiseguys on both sides.

Or, oddsmakers attempted to gouge public bettors lining up to hammer Michigan State at the betting window and the sharps came in and hit them hard by taking the home dog. My advice would be to track the line movement of this game and see if the line continues to drop off that 7.5 number. If it does, the wiseguys are on the Wildcats, who are just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 home games against Sparty.


Tip-off for this Big Ten matchup is set for 2:00 p.m. ET.

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