UNC vs. Duke Prediction
The biggest rivalry in college basketball adds another chapter tonight when No. 18 Duke hosts No. 8 North Carolina at 8PM ET.
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, Duke is the slight favorite at home, as the Blue Devils are getting odds of -2.5 points against UNC. The over/under total for the game is listed at 160.5 points. These two haven’t met this season. Duke has won four of the last five in the series, but the two have split at the betting window in their last 10 meetings.
Duke got Coach K back this weekend and picked up a 72-64 win over Pitt to improve to 18-5 on the season and 6-4 in the ACC. Despite the win, the Blue Devils still failed to cover a 16-point spread and are now 9-13 ATS on the season and only 5-6 ATS at home. Duke is averaging 82.5 points per game on the season and allowing 67.9 on defense. At home, their averages improve to 86.2 on offense and 63.2 on defense. Luke Kennard leads the team with 19.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while Grayson Allen and Jayson Tatum are each adding 15.8 points per contest.
North Carolina is coming off an 83-76 win over Notre Dame at home to improve to 21-4 on the season and 9-2 in the ACC. Like Duke, UNC has struggled to cover as of late, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five. UNC is 11-11-1 against the spread on the season and just 3-7-1 ATS on the road. UNC averages 87.1 points per game on offense and allows 72 on defense. However, the numbers on the road changes to 78.1 on offense and 78.7 on defense. Justin Jackson has been leading the team with 18.6 points per game while Kennedy Meeks is adding 12.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
Everything about this game wants me to pick UNC. I dislike Duke because I feel the Blue Devils haven’t been living up to the hype and now are a favorite against a dynamic offensive team. However, UNC has not done well in the underdog role. The Heels have failed to cover in their last three as a dog and are just 2-7 against the spread since 2014 as an underdog. So, I am going to go with the trends and take Duke at home, hoping they play up for this big rivalry game.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL DAILY PREDICTION: DUKE -2.5