The madness officially tips off tonight, and the First Four always brings value if you know where to look. These aren’t just play-in games—they’re often high-variance matchups with exploitable edges in pace, shooting, and defensive inefficiencies. Continue reading our Tuesday CBB Best Bets March 17 column for three betting selections ahead of tonight’s matchups.

CBB Best Bet: Texas/N.C. State over 158

This is the best total on the board.

• Both teams are elite perimeter offenses

• NC State ranks near the top nationally in 3PT shooting (~41%)

• Texas is just as vulnerable defensively, ranking near the bottom in opponent 3PT%

• Both defenses struggle badly on the perimeter

We also have confirmation from projections:

• Models are projecting a game in the 80s for both teams

Why this cashes:

• Neither team can guard the arc

• Both offenses rely heavily on spacing and pace

• Late-game fouling + tournament pressure = extra points

Projection: Texas 84, NC State 80
Pick: OVER 158

CBB Best Bet: Wichita State -7 (vs. Wyoming)

This is a classic defense vs. flawed offense mismatch.

• Wichita State:

  • Top-50 in defensive efficiency

  • Top-25 in rebounding %

• Wyoming:

  • Outside top 150 in defensive efficiency

  • Turnover issues (bottom half nationally)

Wyoming simply doesn’t protect the ball or defend consistently, while Wichita State thrives in both areas.

Key Edge:

Wichita State controls:

• The glass

• Tempo

• Half-court defense

That’s a recipe for a comfortable cover, not just a win.

Projection: Wichita State 72, Wyoming 63
Pick: Wichita State -7

CBB Best Bet: Liberty/George Mason over 144.5

This one looks like a slow game on paper—but that’s exactly why there’s value.

• Both teams rank bottom 10 in tempo

• BUT:

  • Liberty shoots nearly 40% from three (elite)

  • Both teams allow high 3PT percentages defensively

Why this is sneaky:

• Slow pace + elite shooting = efficient scoring

• Fewer possessions, but higher points per possession

• Defensive breakdowns on perimeter

This is a classic efficiency-over-volume over.

Projection: Liberty 74, George Mason 71
Pick: OVER 144.5

BONUS LEAN (OPTIONAL)

UMBC vs. Howard: UMBC -1

• Slight favorite in a coin-flip game

• More balanced roster

• Better half-court execution

Worth a smaller play, but not as strong as the top 3.

Tuesday CBB Best Bets March 17

1. Texas vs NC State OVER 158
2. Wichita State -7
3. Liberty vs George Mason OVER 144.5

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