Thursday CBB Best Bets Feb. 26: Can Michigan State cover on the road?

Thursday features a moderately-sized college basketball slate with several mid-major teams and a couple of high-major schools taking the floor on the 26th day of February 2026. Will #8 Purdue beat #13 Michigan State by 8 points or more at Mackey Arena? Can Sam Houston continue its incredible ATS run this season as home favorites against Florida International? Read on for our Thursday CBB Best Bets Feb. 26 article.

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CBB Best Bet: Michigan State +7.5 over Purdue

I like the Spartans here. Michigan State is primed to cover the 7.5-point spread by relying on its consistency in high-stakes Big Ten matchups. The Spartans have been reliable in league play with an 8-7-1 ATS record in conference games this season. What’s more, Michigan State has proven it can rise to the occasion against elite talent, going 3-2-1 ATS against ranked opponents on the campaign.

Additionally, the Spartans’ 7-6-2 ATS mark on 2 or 3 days of rest this year suggests that they are a team that is well-prepared and tactically sound when given time to scout. Expect Michigan State’s defense to keep this battle in West Lafayette within reach until the final possession. Final score projection: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS 74, MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS 70.

CBB Best Bet: Sam Houston -6.5 over Florida International

I’m taking the Bearkats in this one. Sam Houston is well-positioned to cover the 6.5-point spread as home favorites because of their dominance in Huntsville and exceptional preparation. The Bearkats have been a force following a victory, posting an 11-6 ATS record after a win, and they are even more lethal at home with a 6-2 ATS mark as home favorites this year.

Sam Houston’s tactical discipline is evident due to their 11-4 ATS record on equal rest, and they are a sharp 3-1 ATS when playing on 4+ days of rest this year. The Bearkats have the second-best ATS record in the country this season at 18-6, and that should be borne out on the court on Thursday. Expect a rested, focused Sam Houston squad to pull away late. Final score projection: SAM HOUSTON BEARKATS 78, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PANTHERS 68.