Monday CBB Best Bets Feb. 23: Will Louisville-UNC go over total?

Monday night brings two massive Top-25 college basketball showdowns — and both matchups scream points. When elite offenses collide late in conference play, tempo rises, rotations shorten, and shot-makers take over. That’s exactly the setup we get with Louisville at North Carolina and Houston at Kansas. Continue reading for our Monday CBB Best Bets Feb. 23 selections.

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#16 Louisville @ #21 North Carolina — O/U 162.5

Prediction: Over 162.5 Points

Why the total has value:
This ACC clash features two of the league’s most dynamic offenses. Louisville averages nearly 87 points per game, driven by sharpshooting and tempo, and ranks among the nation’s leaders in effective field goal percentage. Their leading scorer Mikel Brown Jr. has erupted for 20+ in multiple games recently and hit 45 points in a historical performance, showing his ability to take over a contest offensively.

North Carolina at home has been notably efficient as well, sporting a strong record at the Dean E. Smith Center and averaging over 80 points per game. Caleb Wilson’s 19.8 PPG and 9.4 RPG gives the Tar Heels a balanced inside-out threat, while Henri Veesaar provides another consistent scoring option.

Offensive Notes to Lean Over:

Louisville’s perimeter game is elite: they shoot over 35% from three and take a high volume of triples, which tends to inflate game pace and possessions.
UNC’s defense has allowed 75+ in two of its last four games, signaling susceptibility that Louisville can exploit.
Both teams rank high in offensive efficiency, and neither profile suggests a slow pace tonight.

Bottom Line: Expect fast break points, quick ball movement, and mutual scoring bursts — a recipe that pushes this matchup well above 162.5. Take the Over.

#2 Houston @ #8 Kansas — O/U 138.5

Prediction: Over 138.5 Points

This marquee Big 12 matchup pits two teams with balanced scoring and offensive firepower against each other. Houston, coming in as a slight favorite, features a disciplined half-court offense that creates good shot quality, while Kansas uses pace and spacing to generate efficient scoring looks.

Supporting Trends for the Over:

Projection models driving headline picks are leaning Over on 138.5, suggesting both sides can exceed expectations offensively.
Houston’s recent games have regularly flirted with totals north of this number, and they’ve topped Over in multiple road contests.
Kansas boasts multiple perimeter and interior scoring threats that tend to keep the scoreboard ticking against strong defenses.

Key Player Notes:

Houston’s offense thrives when their guards handle the ball well and force Kansas defenders to rotate — leading to open kick-outs and secondary offense points.
The Jayhawks hit threes in bunches at home and force up possessions in transition, which helps push totals higher.

Bottom Line: Both teams are capable of pushing pace and lighting up the scoreboard, especially in a competitive Big 12 clash. Expect this game to clear 138.5 points with ease — take the Over.