Oklahoma Win Total Prediction
After back-to-back playoff appearances and Heisman winners, what can we expect from the Oklahoma Sooners in the 2019 season?
Lincoln Riley comes into his third season as head coach of Oklahoma. His first two have seen the Sooners go 12-2 with a Big 12 title and an appearance in the College Football Playoffs, losing in the semifinal each time. According to oddsmakers, Oklahoma is listed with an over/under of 10.5 wins during the regular season in 2019. The over is listed at -130, while the under is listed at +110.
The Oklahoma offense has been tough for anyone to stop. Last year they lead the league in scoring (48.4 ppg) and total offense (570.4 ypg). They had Kyler Murray win the Heisman last year after throwing for 4,361 yards and 42 touchdowns while rushing for 1,001 yards and 12 scores. This year, Oklahoma has Jalen Hurts taking over under center. He transferred from Alabama and should be able to continue the offensive dominance for the Sooners. Hurts has a lot of weapons to work with in CeeDee Lamb, who had 1,158 receiving yards last year, along with Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon in the backfield. The two rushed for over 2,000 yards combined with 25 touchdowns. Oklahoma will have to replace four starters on the offensive line, but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the quick-strike offense.
Defensively, Oklahoma was among the worst in the country last year. The Sooners allowed 33.3 points and 453.8 yards per game. They were 130th in pass defense, giving up 294 yards per game. The unit returns eight starters, but I am not sure it will lead to big changes in results due to their offensive tempo. Kenneth Murray had a team-high 155 tackles and 4.5 sacks last year. He is back to lead the defense. Defensive lineman Ronnie Perkins is also back after a team-high five sacks in 2018. Creating turnovers will be a focus this year as the team only had six interceptions as a unit and didn’t create a fumble recovery.
Oklahoma will face some competitive non-conference programs as the Sooners host Houston and travel to UCLA while also taking on South Dakota at home. Big 12 play has the Sooners hosting Texas Tech, West Virginia Iowa State and TCU. They will make road trips to Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State while facing Texas in the annual battle at the Cotton Bowl.
Riley has really taken Oklahoma a step further in his two years as coach. Last year, their lone losses came by 3 to Texas and by 11 to Alabama in the playoffs. They managed to find a way to win all the games they were supposed, usually in shootout fashion. That can be dangerous sometimes when the offense isn’t clicking, but Riley has had this offense running like a machine for two years. I think he can do the same with Hurts leading the way. Hurts is a veteran QB that is used to big games. I like Oklahoma in every game on the schedule this year. The 10.5 wins allows for one slip up, which could happen, but I don’t see this team dropping two with the talent they have on both sides of the ball.
College Football Prediction: Oklahoma Over 10.5 Wins -130