Thursday NBA Best Bets Dec. 11: Can the Bucks cover as home dogs?

Will Boston thump Milwaukee without Giannis Antetokounmpo? Can the Pelicans cover the small spread as home underdogs on Thursday night? Can Sacramento avoid getting blown out at home against Denver? Read on for our Thursday NBA Best Bets Dec. 11 column.

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NBA Best Bet: Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 over Boston Celtics

I like the Bucks here. Milwaukee can stay inside the 8.5-point spread by dictating a slower tempo and leaning on its half-court offensive efficiency, where Kevin Porter-driven rim pressure and improved spacing should collapse Boston’s help defense. The Bucks’ drop coverage can also limit the Celtics’ paint efficiency and force more mid-range shot attempts, lowering Boston’s per-possession output enough to keep the game tight. If Milwaukee controls the pace and avoids turnover-fueled runs, this stays within one or two possessions late. Final score projection: BOSTON CELTICS 113, MILWAUKEE BUCKS 108.

NBA Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Portland Trail Blazers

I like New Orleans here. I lean Pelicans +4.5, as the pace and efficiency profile favors New Orleans against an injury-thinned Portland squad. The Blazers’ shortened rotation slows their pace and reduces transition efficiency, forcing them into lower-quality half-court possessions. Defensively, missing key rim protectors and point-of-attack pieces makes it harder for Portland to dictate tempo or prevent New Orleans from creating efficient looks early in the clock. The Pelicans should generate better shot quality on both ends, especially at home, where they can push pace selectively and exploit Portland’s lagging defensive efficiency. Final score projection: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 112, PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 109.

NBA Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Sacramento Kings

I like Denver here. Denver can cover the 9.5-point spread by controlling pace and leveraging its superior offensive and defensive efficiency. The Nuggets thrive when they slow Sacramento into half-court possessions, where Jokic-driven spacing and playmaking create high-efficiency shots. Conversely, the Kings could struggle to generate clean rim looks against Denver’s disciplined interior defense. Sacramento’s transition dependence may falter if it can’t get stops, and its defensive rotations could break down against Denver’s multi-action sets. With the Nuggets’ efficiency edge compounding late, this projects as a comfortable margin for the road team. Final score projection: DENVER NUGGETS 121, SACRAMENTO KINGS 109.