Thursday features 5 Christmas Day games on the NBA slate with start times ranging from 12:00 PM ET to 10:30 PM ET. Can the Warriors cover the 8.5-point spread as home favorites against the Mavericks on Thursday evening? Will the Rockets defeat the Lakers by 3+ points Christmas night at Crypto.com Arena? Can Denver cover as home favorites against a scrappy Minnesota team in the nightcap? Read on for our Christmas Day edition, Thursday NBA Best Bets Dec. 25 article.
NBA Best Bet: Golden State Warriors -8.5 over Dallas Mavericks
I like the Warriors here. Golden State’s ability to grind tempo and execute on both ends gives them every chance to cover the 8.5 points at home vs. Dallas on Christmas Day. The Warriors play at a controllable pace that should limit transition chances for Dallas, while their offensive efficiency (better effective field goal percentage and points per possession in their last matchup) and top-tier defense should help to suppress the Mavericks’ scoring. Furthermore, Golden State is 7-6 ATS at home, 6-5 ATS as a home favorite, and 5-3 ATS with the rest edge this season, showing they can cover in situations like Thursday’s game. Expect the Warriors to play with efficiency and control possessions throughout, as they cruise to a relatively sweat-free win. Final score projection: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 118, DALLAS MAVERICKS 108.
NBA Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 over Houston Rockets
I’d take the Lakers in this contest. Los Angeles has the profile to cover the 2.5 points at home against Houston on Thursday by controlling the tempo and maximizing offensive efficiency. L.A. can also win by tightening up defensively in key spots. The Lakers thrive when pushing the pace and settling into half-court sets. As long as Los Angeles can clean up turnovers and their defense disrupts Houston’s rhythm, they should cover the number on Christmas Day.
Some other numbers back the case for the Lakers. L.A. is 8-5 ATS as an underdog, 7-1 ATS after a loss, and 9-3 ATS on 1 day of rest, showing that they have covered the number in a myriad of different relevant scenarios. Expect a competitive, lower-variance game with L.A. either pulling it out at the end or coming very close to doing so. Final score projection: LOS ANGELES LAKERS 112, HOUSTON ROCKETS 110.
NBA Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -2.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves
I’d take the Nuggets in this game. Denver should be set up to cover the 2.5-point spread at home against Minnesota by controlling the pace and leaning on efficient execution on both ends. Their half-court offense generates high value per possession, and Denver’s defense can limit easy Timberwolves buckets and force contested looks — a combination that curbs variance and keeps opponent scoring manageable. On rest, Denver has been solid ATS (9-7 ATS on 1 day off). The Nuggets also respond strongly after setbacks (5-2 ATS after a loss), and have fared well against division foes (3-1 ATS in division play) this season. Expect controlled tempo and smart shot selection as Denver wins and covers on Christmas Day. Final score projection: DENVER NUGGETS 119, MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 113.
Thursday NBA Best Bets Dec. 25
- Golden State Warriors -8.5
- Los Angeles Lakers +2.5
- Denver Nuggets -2.5
Follow: Twitter/X · Bluesky · Facebook
Responsible Gaming
For help and resources, visit our Responsible Gaming page or the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Affiliate Disclosure
We may receive affiliate commissions if you sign up through links on our site. Read our full Affiliate Disclosure.