Last Updated on November 6, 2025 8:36 pm by Alex Becker
SAN ANTONIO — In-state rivals meet in group play of the NBA Cup as Houston’s half-court defense clashes with San Antonio’s skill and length. Our Rockets vs. Spurs prediction weighs whether Houston’s length and rim protection can prove to be the difference over four quarters.
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Rockets vs. Spurs Odds: ML, Spread, Total
- Moneyline: Rockets -140 / Spurs +120
- Spread: Rockets -2.5 (-115) / Spurs +2.5 (-105)
- Total: 224.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
- TV: Prime Video
Rockets vs. Spurs Matchup Breakdown
- Pace & Shot Profile: Houston (21st in pace) drags opponents into playing in the half-court, prioritizing rim protection and limiting transition run-outs. San Antonio (30th in pace) likes to run iso sets for Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle.
- On-Ball Creation: Houston leans on steady pick-and-roll efficiency and while protecting the ball against turnovers; San Antonio mixes point-forward offensive initiations with higher-variance shot creation that relies on spacing to work well.
- Interior & Glass: Rockets carry a defensive rebounding edge (4th in defensive rebounds per game) and solid rim protection; Spurs can create offensive rebounding surges (5th in offensive rebound rate) but are vulnerable to second-chance points on the defensive end when facing physical frontcourts.
- Injury/Status: Rockets: Fred VanVleet and Dorian Finney-Smith are out. Steven Adams is questionable. Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Luke Kornet are out. Jeremy Sochan and Kelly Olynyk are both questionable.
Betting Trends and Market Notes
- The over is 5-1-1 in Houston’s games this season.
- The over is 30-17 in Houston’s road games since the start of last season.
- San Antonio is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- San Antonio is 24-20 ATS as the home team since the start of last season.
- 65% of the public bets are on Houston -2.5 at the time of this writing.
Standings Stakes & Betting Angles
- Group-stage NBA Cup points and a potential tiebreak in the Western Conference’s top tier make this more than a typical early-season game.
- Totals note: If Spurs’ early three-pointers land and free throw rate climbs, numbers can push to 223/224 toward the mid-220s; if Houston can control the glass and tempo, the under could be in play depending on late-game foul variance.
Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction & Expert Pick
Pick: San Antonio +2.5 (-105). Our Rockets vs. Spurs prediction leans on fading the public, the Spurs’ having the best player in the game (Victor Wembanyama) and San Antonio getting points at home.
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