Last Updated on November 13, 2025 12:31 am by Alex Becker
PHOENIX — The Indiana Pacers visit the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night in an early-season inter-conference matchup. Our Pacers vs. Suns prediction weighs whether Indiana’s defense can contain Phoenix’s offense over four quarters.
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Pacers vs. Suns Odds: ML, Spread, Total
- Moneyline: Pacers (+160) / Suns (−190)
- Spread: Pacers +4.5 (-110) / Suns −4.5 (-110)
- Total: 231.5 (Over −110 / Under −110)
- Start Time: 9:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM MT
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Pacers vs. Suns Matchup Breakdown
- Pace & Shot Profile: Indiana’s (6th in pace) profile leans more chaotic: they’re at their best when speeding teams up, forcing mistakes, and turning live-ball turnovers into easy runouts. Phoenix (21st in pace) is most comfortable at home when it can blend efficient half-court sets with selective transition pushes, hunting quality midrange looks, and catch-and-shoot threes.
- On-Ball Creation: Indiana leans on guards to pressure the defense and get downhill, while taking care of the ball (4th fewest turnovers per game). Phoenix plays looser (21st in turnovers per game), but has more polished half-court initiators. Those players are capable of running pick-and-roll sets, getting to pull-up jumpers, and kicking to shooters when the Pacers over-help.
- Interior & Glass: The Pacers are scrappy on the glass as they rank 2nd in the NBA in total rebounds per game and 17th in rebound rate this year. Phoenix has a size advantage over Indiana, but the Suns rank 18th in total rebounds per game and 14th in rebound rate this season.
- Injury/Status: Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Bennedict Mathurin, and Quenton Jackson are all out. Phoenix: Jalen Green is out; everyone else should be good to go.
Standings Stakes & Betting Angles
- This game matters for Phoenix as it tries to stack home wins and stay afloat in the crowded Western playoff picture, while Indiana (1-10 SU this year) is looking to steal a road win to prevent falling into the cellar in the East and build some confidence away from home.
- Totals note: If Indiana’s pressure defense creates extra possessions and Phoenix converts possessions efficiently, this number can climb. But if the Suns slow it down, control tempo, dominate the glass, and force the Pacers to grind in the half court, that favors longer, lower-scoring possessions and can tilt value toward the under at a low 230s total.
Pacers vs. Suns Prediction & Expert Pick
Pick: Pacers +4.5 (-110). Our Pacers vs. Suns prediction leans on fading the public (82% of public bets are on Phoenix at the time of this writing), Indiana’s 6-2-1 ATS record in their last 9 games against Phoenix, and the Pacers’ 1-day rest advantage.
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