Last Updated on October 23, 2025 2:26 am by Alex Becker
The Denver Nuggets head to the Bay Area to face the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night at 10:00 PM ET. It’s NBA opening week on ESPN. Can the Nuggets cover the 2.5-point spread as road underdogs? Keep reading for our Nuggets vs. Warriors betting prediction.
The Denver Nuggets went 50-32 straight up in the regular season last year. They were 46-48-2 ATS last season.
The Golden State Warriors are 1-0 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 1-0 ATS this season.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Matchup & Betting Odds
531 Denver Nuggets (+2.5) at 532 Golden State Warriors (-2.5); o/u 232.5
10:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 23, 2025
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: ESPN
Nuggets vs. Warriors Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 81% of public bettors are currently backing the Nuggets when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Denver Nuggets Daily Fantasy Spin
The Nuggets are led by their best player, 3-time league MVP Nikola Jokic. The center from Serbia averaged a triple-double last year. In 70 starts for Denver in 2024-25, Jokic averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He shot well from the field also, converting 57.6% of his field goals, 41.7% of his three-pointers, and 80% of his free throw attempts. At 30 years old, Nikola Jokic is still one of the best players in the NBA and should have Denver firmly in playoff contention all season.
Denver’s big off-season move was trading away small forward Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for small forward Cameron Johnson and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick. Johnson averaged 18.8 points per game for the Nets last season and will start at small forward for the Nuggets when healthy this year.
Golden State Warriors Daily Fantasy Spin
Warriors guard Moses Moody (calf), guard De’Anthony Melton (knee), and forward Alex Toohey (knee) will all sit out Thursday’s home opener against the Nuggets. Golden State shooting guards Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Gary Payton II should all see an uptick in minutes with Moody and Melton out of commission on Thursday.
Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA Betting Trends
Denver is 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games against Golden State.
Denver was 18-13-1 ATS as an underdog last season.
Golden State is 22-31-1 ATS after a win since the start of last season.
Golden State is 14-20-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season.
Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA Prediction:
I like Denver in this matchup. The Nuggets are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games against the Warriors. Additionally, Denver is 4-1 straight up in their last 5 road games against Golden State. When the spread is just 2.5 points, the straight-up numbers can be safely factored in.
A couple of ATS numbers also help Denver’s case. The Nuggets were 12-10-1 ATS as a road underdog and 35-29-2 ATS in conference games last year. What’s more, Denver is 44-35-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2021 season, which was the first year that Nikola Jokic won the MVP award. For all of the above reasons, I’m picking the Nuggets. The pick is Denver +2.5 points over Golden State at Bovada.lv.