Mavs vs. Suns Game 5 Predictions
The Phoenix Suns look to get back on track when they host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of their second round series.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
The Suns opened at -6 at Everygame and BetOnline set the total at 213 in their NBA odds board. FiveThirtyEight has the Suns as 5.5-point home favorites, projecting them to win 71 percent of the time. There’s a small gap between the projections and the actual odds, should we take the road team and the points or hammer the total?
Game 4 Recap
The Mavericks were off to a fast start in Game 4, particularly from beyond the arc, hitting 8 of 13 attempts in the first quarter and leading by as many as 17 points before halftime. The Suns won’t let them do the same at Footprint Center.
Luka Doncic shot just 1-for-10 from 3-point range but still finished with 26 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes. Dorian Finney-Smith made 8 of his 12 3-point attempts and scored 24 points while Spencer Dinwiddie, Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans combined for 33 points on 7-for-13 from beyond the arc.
The Mavs made 20 of 44 3-point attempts (45.5 percent) but they’re shooting 38.4 percent from distance in the playoffs. Look for some regression on Tuesday, with head coach Monty Williams making the Suns work extra hard on their 3-point defense.
CP3 Struggles Again
Chris Paul, who turned the ball over seven times in Game 3, had another bad performance, as he picked up his fourth foul before halftime and got fouled out with about nine minutes to play. Paul logged only 23 minutes for five points on 2-for-4 shooting. With CP3 out, the Mavericks turned up the defensive pressure on Devin Booker but he still scored 35 points on 10-for-22 from the field in 43 minutes. Phoenix will need more from the rest of the team, especially Paul.
The most glaring issue was CP3’s fouls, as the resulting time spent without him hurt a lot. Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder also had to play through foul trouble and the team’s 17 turnovers led to 23 points for Dallas.
“It’s something that has hurt us,” Monty Williams said after the game. “I don’t think we were as organized tonight. A bit rushed.”
Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd did a great job by getting Jalen Brunson going in Games 3 and 4. Luka Doncic’s usage was too high in prior games and while Brunson had just 18 points in Game 4, the Mavericks are winning is due to the offensive punch they got from a rhythm player like Jalen Brunson.
Building an early lead gave Dallas purpose to defend and put Phoenix in a hole. You can’t measure momentum and the Mavs are all of a sudden defending better because there’s less ball dominance by Doncic and their role players and other guards engaged, which translates to togetherness.
That said, Chris Paul yelled “I’LL SEE YOU LATER!” at a young fan that allegedly got physical with his wife and mother during Game 4 and he had this to say afterwards: “Wanna fine players for saying stuff to the fans but the fans can put they hands on our families…f**k that!” The Suns won’t win this series unless Chris Paul plays at his best and this incident will fuel him in Game 5, which I see as another high scoring game with CP3 making plays from start to finish.
NBA Pick: Over 213 (-110)at BetOnline