Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction

NBA Predictions: Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Total Set Too High? 3/30/18

Is the betting total for tonight's Nuggets and Thunder matchup set too high? The two teams will square off in OKC tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Game Snapshot

(507) Denver Nuggets at (508) Oklahoma City Thunder

Friday, March 30, 2018

TV: N/A, 8:00 p.m. ET

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager, the Thunder are 3.5-point home favorites to beat the Nuggets, while the over/under currently sits at 223.5 points.

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LINE MOVEMENT

The Thunder opened as 4-point home favorites but the line was bet down a half-point to 3.5, while the over/under currently sits at 223.5 after hitting the board at 222.

PUBLIC BETTING

As of this writing, 64% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Thunder to cover the point spread tonight. Meanwhile, 61% of the betting tickets are on the over.

KEY INJURY TO WATCH

Gary Harris is out for the Nuggets due to a knee injury while Andre Roberson is out for the year in Oklahoma City because of a leg injury.

BETTING STRATEGY

This betting total is inflated because these two teams combined for 251 points the last time they played each other. But take a look at the combined scores in the previous two meetings: 196 and 189. Both the Nuggets and Thunder were shooting the ball well when they combined for those 251 points but I expect an offensive regression tonight. Paul George isn't going to nail 14 of his 18 2-point attempts again and despite defensive-minded Harris and Roberson out for each side, I expect the combine score to fall well under tonight. Denver is playing on an extended road trip so the Nuggets could be worn out, while the Thunder was just in San Antonio last night so they too could be dealing with tired legs.

 

OUR PREDICTION: NUGGETS/THUNDER UNDER 223.5

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