Mobil 1 301 Picks: Odds & Best Bets (NHMS)

Mobil 1 301 Picks & Race Snapshot

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025 — 2:00 p.m. ET (green flag approx. 2:05)
• Location: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH
• TV/Radio: USA Network · PRN · SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
• Track length / Distance: 1.058-mile oval · 301 laps (318.46 miles)

Mobil 1 301 Odds: Opening vs Current

Opening lines vs. current outright prices for key contenders:

• Christopher Bell — Open: +350 → Current: +300 to +550
• Ryan Blaney — Open: +700 → Current: +550 to +650
• Denny Hamlin — Open: +600 → Current: +500 to +750
• Kyle Larson — Open: +1000 → Current: +800 to +1000
• Joey Logano — Open: +1600 → Current: +1200 to +1600

Note: Odds update frequently through race week; shop multiple books for best numbers.

Mobil 1 301 Betting Storylines

• Short-flat specialists: NHMS rewards brake control, corner entry discipline, and clean pit execution. Profiles like Bell, Blaney, and Hamlin tick those boxes.
• Track position premium: Passing is tough; qualifying and restart craft often decide stage control and late-race leverage.
• Weather edge: Dry, pleasant afternoon (low 70s°F, light wind). Stable track temps and modest fall-off favor track position over weather chaos.
• Pit-road precision: Tight pit lane amplifies penalties; error-free stops are a real win condition at the Magic Mile.

Expert Mobil 1 301 Picks & Best Bets

• Outright: Christopher Bell — elite qualifying upside and long-run balance; clean air magnifies his edge in Stage 2/3.
• Outright (value): Ryan Blaney — flatter fall-off curve on long runs; if he starts inside Row 3, outright + top-3 ladder makes sense.
• Top 5 Finish: Joey Logano — restart craft + pit-road discipline; New England comfort zone boosts ceiling in track-position races.
• Long-shot Top 10: Josh Berry — improving pit cycles and short-flat fundamentals give sneaky median-lap speed.
• Matchup: Byron over Elliott — steadier median-lap stability and cleaner pit-in/out trends on short-flats this season.