AAA 400 NASCAR Free Picks
(The Spread) - NASCAR rolls into Dover International Speedway on Sunday for stop number three in the Chase for the Championship with the AAA 400.
This will be the second race at Dover this year and we think this one should play out much like the previous outing, so look for those who did well back in May to have strong runs again on Sunday.
In the first race, Jimmie Johnson had the dominant car and led half the laps but ended up ninth. The only drivers who have finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover in 2010, as well as the race here in May, are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.
A few drivers took a big step back in the standings last week, so look for Johnson and Kurt Busch to be a bit more aggressive as to not fall any farther back in the standings for the championship.
Edwards’ 7.6 average finish is the best of any driver at Dover. In 14 career starts here, he’s never finished worse than 18th (which came in his first start). He’s also completed all but four of the 5,604 laps ran in those races. He has nine top-10s in the last 10 races at "The Monster Mile," and won this race in 2007. Edwards has come on strong lately with five straight top-10s in the last five Sprint Cup races and we look for him to get back in the hunt for the championship with a win on Sunday.
Dover has been a very good track at times for Busch, but also a track that has caused him problems as well. In 13 starts at Dover, Busch has two wins and seven top-5s but at times he’s also run like he’s never seen the track before. If Busch wants to get back in contention for the championship, he needs to be his usual aggressive self (which is what wins races here).
Biffle has two victories at "The Monster Mile" and an average finish of 11.4 in eighteen starts. But his last two races here have been like his season: very disappointing. In his last two races at Dover, he’s finished 19th both times. But previously, he had eight top-10s in nine races. We are getting double the usual odds this week due to his down year but he’s worth a small bet since he has always ran well here.
2011 AAA 400 Information
Race Date: Sunday, Oct. 2
Location: Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE
Pre-Race: 1:00PM ET
Green Flag: Approx. 2:14PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
Radio Coverage: MRN
Track Type: Oval (400 laps)