2011 Aaron's 499 Predictions

2011 aaron's 499 picks predictions odds nascar betting

(The Spread) - The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to one of its most famous tracks on Sunday for the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway.

View Current NASCAR Betting Odds

After watching the races from Daytona, we can expect much of the same this week with drivers pairing up with another driver who they trust won't leave them alone without a drafting partner.

At Talladega, you have to forget about trying to handicap the event and go with those drivers who have proven they can race on the plate tracks. Winning at Talladega not only takes knowing how to plate race, but you also need a fair amount of luck as well (which is something we saw at Daytona when longshot Trevor Baynes won at a big price).

One thing to pay close attention to this week is the Ford cars with the new FR9 engine, which have been the dominant cars all year. At Daytona, they ran up front all day with no mechanical breakdowns, unlike what many of the other teams experienced.

Kurt Busch 11/1

According to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com, Busch is 11/1 to win this weekend at Talladega. Busch is the best restrictor plate driver who has never won a points race, but we think that streak ends this week. Busch has 13 top-10s at Talladega, with eight of those finishes eighth or better. What we really like about Busch on plate tracks is that he is a consistent front runner, which means he will usually be up front out of harms way when the “big one” comes. (It's not a matte of “if” it happens as “when” as it pertains to Talladega.) Look for Busch to get his first points win on a plate track this week.

Clint Bowyer 15/1

Bowyer beat teammate Kevin Harvick here last October in a thrilling photo finish and will be bring that same car back for this week’s race. Bowyer has always run well here, and at Daytona, with Talladega being the better of the two plate tracks for him. In his last six Talladega races, he’s finished 12th or better five times, which include four top tens. We look for another strong race from Bowyer this week at a very nice price.

Live Longshot

Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1

We had Montoya as our long-shot pick in last year’s fall race and he could have won if he hadn't lost his drafting partner. After a strong showing at Daytona, we like him to finally get that first win on an oval. With two straight third place finishes, it's obvious he has restrictor plate racing figured out and he could very well be the second straight long shot to win a plate race.

Bet Aaron’s 499 Odds

Want More From TheSpread.com? Follow us on Twitter and Facebook or Subscribe to Our News Feeds!

Recent NASCAR Discussions

NASCAR Predictions & Odds

Thumbnail Toyota Owners 400 Odds The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series makes its way over to Virginia this weekend for a nice race. Here’s a look at the odds to win the Toyota Owners 400.
Thumbnail Food City 500 Predictions The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series is set to wave the green flag on the Food City 500 on Sunday. Here’s some drivers that we think should contend for the victory in this...
Thumbnail Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 Predictions The NASCAR Xfinity Series get the racing weekend started on Saturday afternoon with the running of the Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300. Here are three drivers that...
Thumbnail Food City 500 Odds The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Bristol this weekend for the running of the Food City 500. Here’s a look at the odds to prevail.
Thumbnail O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Picks After a week off, the NASCARMonster Energy Cup Series returns to action this weekend with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts...

Nascar Headlines