Last Updated on September 12, 2025 8:45 am by Michael Cash
Friday, September 12, 2025 serves up jam packed full MLB slate with playoff races tightening and sharp betting edges emerging. Below you’ll find three high-confidence moneyline picks and two plus-money underdogs, reinforced by trend insights and today’s public moneyline data to help you target the best value on the board.
Friday’s MLB Best Bets
- Cleveland Guardians ML (–172) vs Chicago White Sox
Cleveland owns the run-prevention edge behind a stronger starter and a fresher, higher-leverage bullpen. Their contact quality should pressure Chicago early and often.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Philadelphia Phillies ML (–139) vs Kansas City Royals
With a deeper lineup and late-inning relief advantage, Philadelphia is well-priced at home against a Royals team that struggles to string hits in leverage spots.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (–161) @ San Francisco Giants
The rotation edge plus superior run-creation metrics make L.A. a worthy road favorite. Expect the Dodgers to control the pace and win the high-leverage innings.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Today’s MLB Value Long Shots
- St. Louis Cardinals ML (+158) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Divisional familiarity narrows the gap, and St. Louis gets a live arm at a strong plus-price. If they limit free passes, the late-game path is there.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Los Angeles Angels ML (+156) @ Seattle Mariners
The market leans heavily to Seattle, but the Angels’ starter profiles well if he keeps traffic off early. At this number, the upside outweighs the risk.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
Source: MLB public betting chart (moneyline percentages).
- Guardians: ~84% public — aligned with our pick.
- Phillies: ~92% — aligned.
- Dodgers: ~89% — aligned.
- Brewers: ~96% — Public on Milwaukee; value may lie with St. Louis.
- Mariners: ~91% — Public on Seattle; value may lie with Los Angeles.
Quick Trend & Market Notes
• Home favorites in the –130 to –175 band with top-half bullpens have performed best down the stretch (Guardians, Phillies).
• Contrarian dogs in the +150 to +170 range show the most upside when public support exceeds ~70% on the favorite (Cardinals, Angels).
• Road favorites with run-prevention and lineup depth tend to close well in rivalry spots (Dodgers).
Today’s Card – September 12, 2025
| Matchup | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox @ Guardians | ML | Guardians –172 |
| Royals @ Phillies | ML | Phillies –139 |
| Dodgers @ Giants | ML | Dodgers –161 |
| Cardinals @ Brewers | ML (Value) | Cardinals +158 |
| Angels @ Mariners | ML (Value) | Angels +156 |