Rays Win Total Prediction
While by no means an utter disaster, Tampa Bay’s first campaign without Joe Maddon certainly failed to deliver on a lot of fronts. Can one of the game’s top young rotations help heighten the buzz entering the summer?
The AL East remains littered with formidable talent, so a rapid turnaround from last year’s 80-84 mark seems doubtful. Oddsmakers at online sports book Bovada.lv set this team’s over/under total at 81.5 wins – the second-lowest number in the division.
At least optimism permeates the starting five. Ace Chris Archer, 27, overcame putrid run support in 2015 to strike out 10.70 batters per nine innings. Fellow righty Jake Odorizzi pitched almost as well, registering the league’s eighth-lowest ERA at 3.35.
The real wild in this deck, though, is southpaw Drew Smyly. Since arriving in the David Price deal with Detroit, Smyly boasts an 8-3 record with a 2.52 ERA. The one drawback: Shoulder problems cost him 100-plus games last season. If both he and former phenom Matt Moore can be counted on every five days, the Rays clearly trot out the division’s finest collection of arms.
Manager Kevin Cash does not have the same luxury on offense. Despite the winter arrivals of outfielder Corey Dickerson, shortstop Brad Miller and designated hitter Logan Morrison, the lineup looks grim. Evan Longoria simply fails to produce cornerstone-type numbers anymore. After smacking 32 homers in 2013, he has averaged 21 dingers over the past two years.
Even with diminishing power, though, the third baseman nonetheless represents Tampa Bay’s best option in the order. Presumptive cleanup man Dickerson will experience trouble replicating his numbers from Coors Field, and Loney’s inability to consistently drive the ball cripples this group’s ability to string together. WAR hero Kevin Keirmaier intrigues simply because of that 30-swipe potential.
The Rays again must keep games nauseatingly tight and then steal more than a few in the late innings. There’s a sudden caveat to that established formula, however, and it comes in the form of Brad Boxberger’s core injury. The All-Star closer could miss two-plus months following core muscle surgery, leaving the untested Alex Colome and Danny Farquhar to temporarily pick up the pieces at the back end of the bullpen.
Nonetheless, Tampa Bay’s primary strength serves as the ideal counterpunch to the heavy-hitting Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. With a Cy Young performer at present, not to mention others developing down on the farm, the organization knows how it plans to keep those bigger-spending rivals at bay. Expect Cash’s club to grind its way toward the mid-80s.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER 81.5 GAMES
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