Padres Win Total Prediction
After last year’s recruitment of individual standouts generated indifferent collective results, San Diego returned to the drawing board for 2016. Could a stripped-down roster actually improve the team’s chances of contending in the National League West?
The Petco Park faithful, not to mention oddsmakers, may require some convincing. Online sports book Bovada.lv lists the Padres’ projected win total at 73.5 – fourth-worst in the division.
Of general manager A.J. Preller’s various high-profile additions one winter ago, only Matt Kemp remains. At age 31, the former MVP runner-up is entrusted with anchoring a largely pedestrian lineup. While no longer the deep threat he was in Los Angeles, Kemp does comes of a second-half OPS figure of .868. Justin Upton’s replacement in left field, former Cardinal Jon Jay, won’t remotely approach that territory. The same goes for Melvin Upton Jr. in right.
Who exactly brings any kind of lumber, then? First baseman Wil Myers ostensibly fits the profile. A one-time wunderkind with the Rays, he endured an injury-riddled debut season on the West Coast If Myers manages to rediscover his 2014 form, though, it would be a huge boon for new skipper Andy Green. Joining the former AL ROY along the infield: the solid, albeit unspectacular, trio of Cory Spangenberg, Aramis Ramirez and Yangervis Solarte.
On the mound, however, reside several with real promise. James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner occupy the top three spots in the rotation. Shields and Ross each took 33 turns and reached the 200-strikeout plateau in 2015. The eternally tantalizing, control-crippled Cashner went 6-16 with a 4.34 ERA.
The trio will shoulder more responsibility than ever in light of the uncertainty behind them. Prospective No. 4 Brandon Maurer’s career record as a starter: 4-12. As for Colin Rea, he’s never logged more than 139 frames in a campaign. Southpaw Robbie Erlin and the versatile Drew Pomeranz also lurk on the periphery here.
At least the batterymate with whom they’ll primarily work keeps displaying improvement. Derek Norris just led all MLB catchers in runners thrown out trying to steal with 44, and he’s a lock to belt double-digit homers. Austin Hedges and Christian Betancourt provide quality depth behind the plate as well.
The numbers are obviously thinner everywhere else. Preller’s willingness to ship stalwart relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit out of town ensures additional heartache to come, too, late in games. There simply isn’t much motivation to view this group as a challenger to the once-comparable Diamondbacks, let alone the Dodgers and Giants. Best case: mid-70s in the W column.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO PADRES UNDER 73.5 WINS
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