Last Updated on September 16, 2025 7:29 am by Anthony Rome
Looking for the Padres vs Mets prediction on Tuesday, September 16, 2025? We’ve got you covered with live MLB odds, betting trends, starting pitching matchup analysis between Michael King and Clay Holmes, plus our expert pick. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, run line, or total, this preview gives you everything you need before first pitch at Citi Field.
Game Information
- Date/Time: Tuesday, September 16, 2025 – 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
- TV Broadcast: TBS, SNY, SDPA
Current Betting Odds (via Bovada)
- Moneyline: Mets –114 | Padres –106
- Run Line: Padres –1.5 (+185) | Mets +1.5 (–225)
- Total Runs (O/U): 8.5 (Over –115 | Under –105)
Public Betting Snapshot
According to the latest betting action, the Mets are drawing a slight majority of moneyline tickets, with around 55% of the public backing them at home. The Padres, however, are attracting sharper action on the run line given their recent success in close games. Totals betting is leaning slightly to the under 8.5, with about 60% of bettors expecting a lower-scoring contest.
Check the latest numbers here: MLB Public Betting Chart
News, Notes & Storylines
- Michael King returns strong: King has been sharp when healthy, limiting hard contact and keeping his strikeout numbers high. The Mets lineup has historically struggled to square him up.
- Clay Holmes under pressure: Holmes has had stretches of effectiveness, but his control issues and rising WHIP make him vulnerable against patient lineups like San Diego.
- Padres bullpen advantage: San Diego enters this matchup with one of the more reliable relief staffs in the National League, a potential difference-maker late in the game.
- Mets’ slump at Citi Field: New York has been inconsistent at home, especially against quality starting pitching, and comes into this game needing to regain offensive rhythm.
- Playoff implications: With the Padres pushing for the NL West crown and the Mets clinging to wild-card hopes, both clubs face heightened urgency.
Previous Meetings (Last 3 Games)
- Game 1: Padres defeated Mets in San Diego, taking the series opener with timely hitting and strong bullpen work.
- Game 2: Padres again came out on top, capitalizing on early runs against the Mets’ starter and holding off a late rally.
- Game 3: San Diego completed the sweep with Michael King delivering a quality start while the Mets’ bats went quiet.
The Padres have now won three straight against the Mets, building momentum in the head-to-head matchup.
Padres vs. Mets Prediction
This game shapes up as a classic pitcher’s duel. Michael King has been more consistent in big spots and matches up well against the Mets lineup. Clay Holmes has the ability to keep New York in the game but has been hittable against teams with patient approaches. With San Diego also holding the bullpen edge and momentum from recent head-to-head wins, the value lies with the Padres to continue their success.
Best Bet: Padres moneyline (–106)
Lean: Under 8.5 runs
Bet on Padres vs. Mets
Ready to make your play on tonight’s Padres vs. Mets matchup? Get the latest lines and place your bets securely here:
👉 Bovada.lv