A’s Win Total Prediction
The Moneyball mystique began to lose luster with some seamheads a few years ago. All the while, though, Billy Beane’s personal brand of derring-do produced playoff berth after playoff berth in Oakland.
Last season, the bottom finally fell out. The Athletics not only missed out on the fun of October for the first time since 2011, their 68-94 record was the worst in the American League. No amount of clever maneuvering could hide an overwhelmed roster with (gasp) minimal upside.
This summer wouldn’t appear to be much better. Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv list the A’s’ over/under total at 75.5 wins, though a couple of individual standouts will strive to ensure moderately meaningful baseball in the second half.
Oakland’s one undisputed strength resides at the top of the rotation. Coming off a 14-7 campaign in which he vied for Cy Young honors, Sonny Gray perhaps owns the AL West’s best pitching repertoire. He’s a craftsman with the ability to dial up the velocity when necessary, and it’s already interesting to consider how long the cash-strapped franchise in question can retain those services.
Behind the ace with the career 1.13 WHIP, things turn ugly in a hurry. The front office seems to dig six-game winner Jesse Hahn, but the righty’s also wrestling with a forearm strain. Rich Hill shocked the universe last September with Boston (1.55 ERA, 36/5 K/BB ratio in 29 innings). Then again, it’s 35-year-old journeyman Rich Hill about whom we’re talking. The cases of former Miami All-Star Henderson Alvarez (torn shoulder muscle) and Jarrod Parker (two Tommy John procedures) invite similar sighs.
At least the bullpen features a hammer at the back end. Well, unless Sean Doolittle falls victim to further shoulder maladies. The lefty notched 24 saves in 2014, but he barely managed to appear in 12 contests a season ago. Beane wisely added insurance policies Ryan Madson and John Axford during the winter. In fact, the GM jettisoned all but three relievers (Doolittle, Felix Doubront and Fernando Rodriguez).
Chess moves in the late innings matter very little, however, if an offense keeps sputtering. The Athletics just finished 12th in the AL in OPS – despite No. 3 hitter Josh Reddick’s 20 homers and 77 RBIs. They need more out of holdovers Billy Butler (.233 average with two outs and runners in scoring position) and Danny Valencia (.284/.356/.530) as youngsters Stephen Vogt (18 HRs, sixth among catchers) and Billy Burns (25 steals, 70 runs) mature on the job. New lineup additions such as Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis and Yonder Alonso must make immediate impacts, too.
Fans can’t help but wonder what might have been, though, if Josh Donaldson were still in Alameda County. Beane shipped him to Toronto following the A’s’ most recent wild-card exit, part of a purge to get younger and … cheaper. Everybody knows what the third baseman accomplished in 2015. Now Oakland is left with a popgun attack and players breaking club records for errors (cough, Marcus Semien). Dark times, indeed.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND ATHLETICS UNDER 75.5 WINS
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