Yankees Win Total Prediction
Our current culture revels in nostalgia, revivals and subtle tweaks to established formulas. In the case of the New York Yankees, though, is bringing the band back together the best way to claim AL East supremacy?
Online sports book Bovada.lv pays appropriate respect to one of the junior circuit’s two wild-card representatives from a year ago, setting the Bronx Bombers’ 2016 over/under figure at 85.5 wins. Only two division rivals – Boston and Toronto – are projected to go higher.
Well before Houston ousted the Yanks last Oct. 6, however, the skepticism took root. Where did Alex Rodriguez find the (legal) Fountain of Youth? How could Joe Girardi keep cruising with a fading Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of that lineup? Who was responsible for finding somebody named Greg Bird to plug the first-base hole left by Mark Teixeira’s leg injury?
Through it all, New York silenced countless doubters and proved that its undeniably old core still had plenty left in reserve. While Rodriguez’s second-half production slowed, the once-disgraced slugger totaled 33 homers, 86 runs batted in and found redemption with fans. He and Brian McCann (26 HRs and 94 RBIs) helped carry the Pinstripers into October for the first time in three years.
Those expecting an encore, of course, may find themselves sorely disappointed. Rodriguez turns 41 in July and can’t possibly duplicate the aforementioned numbers. Other plate mainstays like Carlos Beltran and Brett Gardner will likely cede PT to emerging outfielder Aaron Hicks.
The Yankees’ primary problem: The Hickses remain in short supply. Of the top nine position players, two – shortstop Didi Gregorious and former Chicago infielder Starlin Castro – belong to the 26-and-under crowd. Askingallof those battle-tested veterans to hold up for another 162-game marathon, in an ultra-competitive division, simply invites calamity.
On the bright side, righty phenom Luis Severino joins the Masahiro Tanaka-fronted rotation on a regular basis. The rest of the starting arms, except for the intriguing (and combustible) Michael Pineda, remain frustratingly low on upside.
As for the bullpen, optimism reigns. New acquisition Aroldis Chapman’s suspension will preclude him from reeling off saves until May. Nonetheless, Andrew Miller provides immediate stability and confounding stuff from the left side. Should Miller somehow hit a snag, few relievers in the sport throw harder than eighth-inning hammer Dellin Betances.
Don’t put it past New York to rock and roll through the early summer months again. The specter of baseball mortality fast approaches for entirely too many linchpins, though, and the organization hasn’t made enough chess moves down on the farm in anticipation of the inevitable decline. Pride only goes so far once performance slips uncontrollably.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK YANKEES UNDER 85.5 WINS
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