Last Updated on October 1, 2025 9:29 am by Michael Cash
MLB Wild Card Best Bets for October 1, 2025 — October baseball is here. Today’s Wild Card slate features three moneyline best bets, two underdog long shots, sharp Trends & Notes, a moneyline-only public betting snapshot with comparison notes, and a fast “Today’s Card” list for quick decisions. For deeper context, explore our latest MLB betting articles and track live splits on our MLB public betting chart.
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Wednesday MLB Wild Card Best Bets — October 1, 2025
Best Bet #1: New York Yankees ML (−179) vs Boston Red Sox — 6:08 PM ET
Why it fits our MLB Wild Card Best Bets card: Yankee Stadium power plus late-inning strikeout routes shorten the game. If NYY wins early count leverage, one big swing can separate a low-total script.
Best Bet #2: Chicago Cubs ML (−125) vs San Diego Padres — 3:08 PM ET
Why it fits our MLB Wild Card Best Bets card: Modest home price backed by contact-quality edge and a steadier seventh–ninth bridge. Limiting free passes keeps the ball in the yard at Wrigley.
Best Bet #3: Los Angeles Dodgers ML (−270) vs Cincinnati Reds — 9:08 PM ET
Why it fits our MLB Wild Card Best Bets card: Dodger Stadium power profile and bullpen depth give L.A. multiple win paths. Stay ahead in counts, neutralize the run game, and the favorite’s floor is high.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks — Wild Card Underdogs
Long Shot #1: Cleveland Guardians ML (+145) vs Detroit Tigers — 1:08 PM ET
How it complements our MLB Wild Card picks: Home dog with last at-bat in a lower-scoring window. If Cleveland wins first-pitch strikes and leverages late platoons, the price creates a viable flip.
Long Shot #2: Cincinnati Reds ML (+205) at Los Angeles Dodgers — 9:08 PM ET
How it complements our MLB Wild Card picks: Short-series volatility and late-inning leverage can amplify a single big swing. Keep the ball down, steal a count or two, and the number does the rest.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only) — MLB Wild Card
See live percentages on our MLB public moneyline percentages. Notes flag when the public leans opposite our pick.
- Red Sox @ Yankees: Majority expected on NYY — aligned with our Best Bet.
- Padres @ Cubs: Near 50/50; no clear fade. Watch for late CHC steam.
- Reds @ Dodgers: Public heavy on LAD — Public on LAD; value may lie with Reds.
- Tigers @ Guardians: Majority likely on DET — Opposite our CLE long shot; value angle noted.
Trends & Notes — MLB Wild Card Best Bets
- Short-to-modest chalk (−120 to −190) with bullpen K% edges rates well — fits NYY and CHC.
- Evening windows can suppress slug; early count wins + walk avoidance are decisive.
- Plus-money dogs gain EV when ≥60% ML tickets lean to the favorite — monitor CLE and CIN near first pitch.
Today’s MLB Wild Card Best Bets — Card (ET)
- NYY ML (−179) vs BOS — 6:08 PM ET
- CHC ML (−125) vs SD — 3:08 PM ET
- LAD ML (−270) vs CIN — 9:08 PM ET
- CLE ML (+145) vs DET — 1:08 PM ET
- CIN ML (+205) at LAD — 9:08 PM ET
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